Justin Steele Offers a Glimpse Into Future of Chicago Cubs Rotation

Justin Steele continues to stack good performances, a sign of the optimistic direction of the Chicago Cubs pitching.

© Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

By the time Chicago Cubs pitcher Justin Steele's outing had come to an end last Wednesday, he had spun another gem in a season that has seen him prove to be a massive breakthrough. Though most of the season has been a letdown for the Cubs, Steele has been an important bright spot in an area the team desperately needs it.

After Steele's six inning, two-run, nine-strikeout performance against the Washington Nationals, his ERA had lowered to 3.63, with his underlying numbers looking even better. Following his start against the Nationals, Steele had a FIP of 3.28 which would tie him for 17th best in the MLB with San Diego Padres starter Yu Darvish among qualified starters and ahead of players like Gerrit Cole, Tony Gonsolin, and Pablo Lopez.

Steele strikes out batters at an above-average rate, but his main success comes from his fantastic contact management. The lefty gives up flyballs at a 27.8% rate, but most impressively has a home run to flyball ratio of just 7.8%, down nearly 20% from last year. 

Justin Steele in his last 7 starts:

1.95 ERA / 37 IP / 8 ER / 45 K’s 🔥 pic.twitter.com/I5zn8MHpeR

— Cubs Zone (@CubsZone) August 10, 2022

Steele has done this while essentially utilizing two pitches, his four-seam fastball and his slider, a combined 86.6% of the time. Both pitches have been excellent, with his fastball being stingy against the long ball and his slider limiting his opponents to a batting average of just .129 according to Baseball Savant. However, the development of his changeup or curveball, to give him a legit third option, could elevate Steele to another level in 2023.

Steele in many ways is a perfect representation of what has been happening with the pitching development at every level of the organization this season. The hiring of Carter Hawkins as General Manager has seemingly breathed new life into an area that torpedoed the Chicago's previous era of contention, and that's the ability to develop homegrown starting pitching.

Major emergences down on the farm in pitchers like Caleb Kilian, Jordan Wicks, Luis Devers, and so many others, paired with the promising runs of Steele and Keegan Thompson should inspire some optimism for the future.

There is a path to being a competitive team in 2023, and Steele has seemingly answered a big question coming into the season about whether or not he can stick as a starter. The Mississippi native product should be a part of the rotation next season. The question is whether or not he can grow into a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter and if he can sustain his contact managing success.

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