9 Starting Pitchers the D-backs Could Target in Free Agency
Entering the off-season, starting pitching will be one of the Diamondbacks top priorities to address. Injuries and poor performances from both veterans and rookies alike resulted in the team struggling to field a capable starting five for the vast majority of the season. Despite Brandon Pfaadt emerging as a capable third starter behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, the rotation is still a major question mark.
It's very unlikely the D-backs have the financial muscle to go get a top of the rotation starter, even with a deep postseason run giving them an economic windfall. Thus we can likely rule out Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola coming to Arizona in the winter. With potentially just $20-25 million to spend this winter, they're more likely to target middle and back of the rotation starters.
Here's a list of potential free agent starters, ranked from best to worst possible fit in terms of budget:
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: Rodriguez opted out of the final three years of his contract, worth $49M, after a solid 2023 season with the Tigers. He'd be the perfect addition to the D-backs rotation as a left-hander, being the ideal No. 3 starter behind Gallen and Kelly. Rodriguez will be looking for a major payday and Arizona will have to use most of their free agent money to land his services. There is also the concern about the team's ability to sign him in the first place, as he vetoed a deal with the Dodgers at the trade deadline.
LHP Wade Miley: With Arizona looking for any sort of left-handed starter, Miley makes a lot of sense if the team wanted to add a potential No. 4 starter to their rotation. He pitches to contact, with only a 16% strikeout rate, living off weak contact against right-handed batters using his cutter and changeup to keep them off balance. The combination of being a solid left-handed starter gives them a different look in the rotation compared to the one they ended the season with, but also serves as a mentor for the organization's top young lefties in Tommy Henry, Yu-Min Lin, and Blake Walston.
RHP Seth Lugo: Lugo had a very successful 2023 season with the Padres, making 26 starts and pitching to a 3.57 ERA and solid peripherals. That should earn him a nice two-year deal on the free agent market in the $25-30 million range, which Arizona can afford. There are some concerns about his ability to hold up as a starter long term, considering he's more than 40 innings above his previous career high of 101. However he could be the D-backs best bet at landing a potential middle of the rotation starter in this free agent market.
LHP Shota Imanaga: Imanaga will be the second most sought after free agent from Japan after Yamamoto. While older, he's also left-handed which fits what Arizona needs more. There is a risk of taking pitchers out of Japan and putting them into a big league rotation, as the workload is vastly different. One troubling aspect is Imanaga is a little susceptible to the home run ball, allowing 0.9 per nine innings in his career and 1.0 last season. That's higher than the league average of 0.8, which might not translate well into the big leagues. His stuff and location will need to be tweaked once he lands on a big league club.
RHP Kenta Maeda: Maeda had a successful recovery from Tommy John surgery, starting 20 games and pitching to a 4.23 ERA with the Twins. Over his career, he has a track record of being a reliable starting pitcher with a 3.92 ERA (105 ERA+) and 3.74 FIP in seven seasons between the Dodgers and Twins. He fits the profile of a No. 4 starter, but given his age (36) and not having pitched a full season since 2019, this has a chance to backfire. A one-year deal with an option or a two-year deal with an opt out would make the most sense.
RHP Michael Lorenzen: Lorenzen bounced back after taking a one-year deal with the Detroit Tigers, pitching to a 3.58 ERA in 18 starts before getting dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies. His tenure in Philadelphia started off great, throwing a 124-pitch no-hitter on August 9th. Since that game, he pitched to an 8.01 ERA and 6.98 FIP and got demoted from the rotation by the end of the season. Even when taking that into account, the overall body of work is solid with a 105 ERA+ in 29 games (25 starts). There is a concern about being able to sustain this kind of workload after throwing 153 innings in the regular season and 2 2/3 in the postseason, as his previous career high in innings was 113 1/3 from his rookie year of 2015. If it's not a concern, like Maeda he profiles as a capable No. 4 starter.
RHP Lucas Giolito: Giolito endured a nightmare 2023 season, pitching for three separate teams that fell well short of their goals. His 4.88 ERA and 5.27 FIP were a result of struggling to keep the ball in the yard, although his 4.61 xERA and 4.45 xFIP don't paint a rosier picture. He was a decent middle of the rotation starter with the White Sox over the years, but really struggled after getting traded to the Angels at the deadline then with Cleveland after getting picked up on waivers. There could be an opportunity for him to take a short term deal with a contender to try to build his value back up before hitting free agency again in a year or two. Chase Field has the fourth lowest multiyear home run park factor and the D-backs have one of the best outfield defenses in baseball. Arizona could be the place for him to turn his career back around.
RHP Jack Flaherty: Since his breakout 2019 season in which he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young vote, Flaherty has been unable to build on that success. Since 2020, he's been relatively mediocre with a 4.42 ERA and 4.36 FIP in just under 300 innings. After injuries limited him to 26 games and 23 starts over 2021-22, he was healthy in 2023 and struggled. His 4.99 ERA was easily the highest of his career, taking a turn for the worst after getting traded to the Baltimore Orioles minutes before the deadline. Now a free agent at the age of 28, Flaherty could be a change of scenery candidate who has the opportunity to rebuild his value over the next couple of seasons and try to cash in later.
RHP Michael Wacha: Wacha is set to hit the market after the Padres declined a 2-year, $32 million club option. It's unlikely he exercises a $6.5M player option for 2024 coming off a decent 2023 season. While he was limited to just 22 starts due to injuries, he pitched to a 3.22 ERA over 134 1/3 innings. Even with the successful results, more advanced ERA estimators aren't as bullish. Despite a solid FIP of 3.89, his xFIP of 4.47 and 4.30 xERA suggest he's due for regression in 2024. The troubling peripherals plus turning 33 next July makes him a candidate to get on a one or two-year deal.
Unless Arizona lands one of the three left-handers at the top of the list, it's going to be slim pickings to add starting pitching from the free agent market. They'd either be choosing from starters who are aging out or are trying to bounce back from a career worst season. It's much more likely they are more aggressive at addressing this need in the trade market.
