Analyzing the Three Right-Handed Bats Linked to the D-backs

The D-backs have been recently linked to three unsigned outfielders in the free agent market.

The Diamondbacks continue to seek ways to improve their roster, now looking amongst three right-handed bats to pair up with Joc Pederson. With the D-backs looking for a part-time player, that means they will need to be able to competently field a position in addition to splitting the designated hitter role with Pederson. All three players are outfielders, which means it will have a trickle-down effect on the position and bump either Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy off the Opening Day roster.

We'll take a look at each player and make the case, ranking them from best to worst fit with the team.

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk is the most appealing free agent target of the three. He's the youngest, having just turned 32 in August, and has the best track record against left-handed pitching. 

In 2023, he put up a .328/.388/.607 slash with eight home runs and a 17/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 134 plate appearances. Even when factoring that he played 64 of his 118 games with the Rockies and the thin air at Coors Field, FanGraphs credits him with a 155 wRC+. That level of offensive production has the opportunity to make a difference in the lineup, even if it's only 300-350 plate appearances.

The quality of contact for Grichuk backed up the numbers. Against lefties, he had a .329 xBA, .582 xSLG, and a .407 xwOBA. It's unclear if the dimensions of the ballpark and placement of the opposing team's players factor into these calculations, but those are all excellent. 

However, it's also worth noting that it must be considered an outlier season compared to his career numbers. In 1305 PA, he has a career of .267/.315/.507 slash and a 116 wRC+ when holding the platoon advantage. That's something to keep in mind when projecting how he'll fare vs. lefties in 2024, as you have to regress his 2023 numbers toward his career averages. At the same time, a 116 wRC+ in that situation would be the fifth-highest mark on the 2023 Diamondbacks behind Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Defensively, Grichuk also best fits in right field. That fits what the team needs to a tee, as they're facing the possibility of having the left-handed hitting McCarthy start there vs. lefties. While it is a small sample size, he was +3 defensive runs saved and -1 outs above average in 192 innings in right. 

The main issue for the D-backs to sign him will come down to role and ultimately cost. Grichuk could very well be holding out for a potential everyday role, although he's been terrible against righties over the last five seasons. That's very much the reason he's still on the market to this day. FanGraphs' median crowdsource expects Grichuk to land a one-year, $8 million deal. The D-backs are expected to field a franchise-record payroll in 2024, but can they find room to add another $7-8 million?

Tommy Pham

The D-backs are very familiar with Tommy Pham, who was acquired at the trade deadline last season and played a key role in their postseason run. He split the left field and DH duties with Lourdes Gurriel Jr., whom the team re-signed in December before a turf toe injury limited him to mostly DH. Despite a relatively successful 2023 campaign, he finds himself on the free agent market searching for an everyday opportunity less than a week before Spring Training starts.

From a locker room standpoint, the veteran outfielder was able to fit in the D-backs' young clubhouse fairly well. His intensity and preparation were an asset to teaching that young squad what it takes to win on baseball's biggest stage. There is the incident from three seasons ago when Pham slapped Pederson over a fantasy football dispute. That issue will hardly make or break a potential deal, although the presence of both players in the same locker room could be.

Of the three players, Pham is the least affected by platoon splits. In 2023 he had a .768 OPS against righties and a .787 OPS against lefties. If it came to it, he could still fill in on an everyday basis if an injury occurred in the outfield. Nine of his 16 home runs came against lefties along with a solid 35/19 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

However Pham turns 36 years old next month, and his batting line with Arizona was not great. He put up a mediocre .241/.304/.415 slash with Arizona in 50 games, but the xStats believe there was some poor luck behind that. Pham was able to bounce back in the postseason with a .279/.297/.475 slash in 16 games and got particularly hot in the D-backs' Division Series sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The defensive fit isn't quite as seamless as with Grichuk, as Pham is better suited to play left field than right. However, the team still started him in nine games at right field to get his bat in the lineup with Gurriel plus the DH is also an option. Arizona Sports radio host John Gambadoro is reporting that Pham is still seeking a team that will commit to an everyday role, so unless that changes, a deal is unlikely.

I have heard that Tommy Pham is looking for a full time job. The Diamondbacks do not have that available. So unless his requirements change. https://t.co/lYwrB641xG

— John Gambadoro (@Gambo987) February 9, 2024

Adam Duvall

If the D-backs are looking for a power bat with little regard for strikeouts, Duvall could likely be had for cheap. He can play all three outfield positions but is better suited to play a corner. That is hardly a problem, as the team would have Corbin Carroll in center field anyway against lefties.

From a lineup construction standpoint, the team likely can't afford to have two bats that could project for a 30% strikeout rate in the middle of their lineup. Unlike Eugenio Suárez, who offsets his strikeouts with an above-average walk rate, Duvall rarely ever draws walks. 

With just four walks in 86 PA vs. lefties, he's pretty much an all-or-nothing hitter. Looking at his 2023 splits, he slashed .244/.280/.477 with three home runs and a 91 wRC+ when holding the platoon advantage. Factor in a 36.6% strikeout rate and a 4.3% walk rate, he might not be an improvement over their internal options other than in the home run department.

D-backs Connected to Trio of Right-Handed Bats