Assessing Eugenio Suárez's Potential Value to the D-backs

Suárez's ability to impact the baseball and play solid defense at third base led to the D-backs trading for him.

The Diamondbacks swung a big trade this week, acquiring third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for minor league reliever Carlos Vargas and one of their options for a backup catcher in Seby Zavala. The D-backs ranked 24th amongst the 30 major league teams in Wins Above Average (WAA) at -1.9 according to Baseball Reference, making it their second biggest need after starting pitching. 

Suárez checks off two of the D-backs biggest needs this offseason: a third baseman and a right-handed bat that can impact the baseball vs. left-handed pitching. For his career, he's a .260 hitter with an .844 OPS against left-handed pitchers. That includes a down year in 2023, in which his slugging percentage was 100 points below his career average despite a .252 average and .361 on-base percentage. Like with much of his numbers last season, the hope is that is the result of a down year and not a sign of things to come.

Suárez's biggest contribution to the lineup is his home run power. However there are two causes for concern in terms of his ability for it to translate to the D-backs lineup. While he boasts a very solid chase rate throughout his career, fewer of his swings at pitches in the strike zone are making contact. The last two seasons his zone contact rate has been 76.0% and 75.4%, causing him to lead the American League in strikeouts in each year. The other bothersome trend is Suárez's fly balls had an exit velocity drop of 1.5 MPH along with a 1.0° degree increase in launch angle, leading to more lazy ball outs. Those two things caused him to go from an impact power bat in 2022 to an average offensive threat in 2023. Addressing both those problems will be the key for the D-backs to get the most offensive value out of him over these next two years.

In addition to the power upside, Suárez compensates for a low batting average with an above-average walk rate and solid numbers batting with runners in scoring position for his career. In those RBI situations, he's a .270 hitter and in only one of the past nine seasons hit below .260. In the D-backs lineup he profiles for the cleanup spot, with Christian Walker moving up to the third spot behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. 

His defense at third last season sparked mixed reviews. From Sports Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved metric, Suárez was -2 runs above average while Statcast puts him at +8. He hadn't been a consistent defender in the past at third, but in 2023 worked hard to shore up that facet of his game and mitigate the offensive decline. The D-backs preach playing fundamentally sound defense, which is evident by their play record as they've been one of the best defensive teams in MLB over the past two seasons.

Suárez's contract situation breaks down pretty favorably for the D-backs, as they don't have to commit to a long term contract and the trade cost was relatively minimal. However that doesn't mean this deal doesn't come without risk, as there still the possibility at his age that his 2023 performance is a warning sign of a much larger decline. That would be the worst case scenario and about the only reason his club option for 2025 wouldn't get picked up. However the upside is getting a potential starting caliber third baseman who can bridge the gap to top infield prospects Tommy Troy or Gino Groover and let them take over the position in two years.