Can the Diamondbacks Finish .500 in 2022?

Surging D-backs have 25-17 record since All Star Break, 8th best in MLB

The Diamondbacks have been playing good baseball since the All Star Break, resulting in a 25-17 second half record, which is the 8th best in MLB. Their overall record is now 65-69, giving them an outside chance to finish at .500 in 2022. Coming off a 52-110 season in 2021, they'll need to go 16-12 the rest of the way to achieve that mark.  That will be a challenge in the face of a very difficult September schedule. 

Such a turnaround (29 games) would be the second largest in franchise history. The largest came in 1999, when the team improved 35 wins from 65 in their inaugural season to 100. The current second largest improvement comes in 2005, when the Diamondbacks won 77 games after winning just 51 in 2004, a 26 game improvement. 

They are not without company in the huge turnaround category. In fact the Baltimore Orioles, who had the same 52-110 record last year, currently have an astonishing 71-64 record. Both teams sit in 4th place in their respective divisions, but the Orioles are only 4.5 games out in the  AL Wild Card chase, while the D-backs are 8 games back in the NL.

Nonetheless the improvement in Arizona can only be classified as a success. So much so in fact that the team recently picked up the option of Manager Torey Lovullo. 

What are the Keys to Improvement?

A combination of good starting pitching and a dynamic group of fast young position players plus a career season from veteran first baseman Christian Walker has created a brand of baseball that is disruptive and exciting to watch. 

Merrill Kelly (12-5, 2.84 ERA) won NL pitcher of the Month for July and  Zac Gallen, (11-2, 2.42 ERA) won the same award for the Month of August. That hasn't happened in Arizona since the days of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. 

Zach Davies has averaged just over 5 IP per start while posting 2.32 ERA over his last 6 outings to help provide stability in the rotation.  

Rookies Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson have been called up and provided a boost to the rotation as well, especially Nelson, who had a stunning MLB debut on Labor Day. 

The position player group is the 3rd  youngest in MLB this year with an average batting age of 26.7 according to Baseball Reference.  MLB average is 28.3 years old. 

Walker's season has provided steady right handed balance. Batting .296 with 8 HR since the break, he has a career high 31 HR and 77 RBI, as well as 16 Defensive Runs Saved, by far the most among MLB first baseman.

The outfield consists of some of the fastest players in the game today. Jake McCarthy leads the team with a .321 batting average and .387 on-base percentage in the second half. He's stolen 12 bases, slugged 4 homers and hit 8 doubles as well. 

Daulton Varsho is having a Gold Glove caliber season in the outfield and is second on the team in homers behind Walker with 20 on the year, 8 since the break.

Despite going through some rookie adjustment periods at the plate, Alek Thomas has joined Varsho in making highlight reel catches night after night in center field and impacts the game with his speed every time he gets a chance. 

26 year old rookie slugger Stone Garrett has provided much needed right handed thump since his promotion. In 10 games he's 14 for 33,  .424 average, with 4 doubles, 3 homers, 8 runs scored and 5 RBI. 

Emmanuel Rivera came over in a trade from Kansas City on August 2nd and has played smooth third base  defense platooning with Josh Rojas. He's also yet another right handed bat to shore up the lineup, hitting .250 with an .847 OPS and 5 homers since the trade. 

Rojas meanwhile continues to be a steady disruptive player at the top of the lineup. He hits for average gets on base and steals bases and always seems to be in the middle of all the havoc. 

Corbin Carroll, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, was recently called up and has provided some key hits and showed off his speed on the base paths. He too is going through rookie adjustments at the moment however. 

Areas to Improve

It hasn't all been smooth sailing. The bullpen continues to be a sore spot and source of frustration for the team and their fans.  Arizona's 32 bullpen losses are tied for the most reliever losses in MLB.  That includes 10 by displaced closer Mark Melancon, and 6 by his  closer replacement Ian Kennedy. Another 5 losses belong to All Star reliever Joe Mantiply, who has struggled in the second half after a lights out first half. His most recent blowup came on September 4th.  A parade of young relievers have come up and down from the minors and mostly struggled to throw strikes and keep runs off the board. 

Asked recently if there were thoughts of "what might have been" this season if he had a more reliable back end of the bullpen, Lovullo said:

No, I haven't gone there. I know what's going on, I know the numbers. We've got nothing else we can do. We have to turn to the guys that we have, and we're going to go after it with those guys.  So I haven't done that. When you're sitting in my seat that can be crazy making. I try to keep it real steady. We'll review all that at the end of the year. 

This is clearly an area that Mike Hazen and the baseball operations group will work hard to improve during the off season. But it's been an annual challenge the last few years and few if any of the free agent pickups have worked out. 

Madison Bumgarner has a 6-13 record with a 4.83 ERA and has been a shadow of the pitcher he was in San Francisco, frequently giving up hard contract.  Mired in a deep second half pitching slump, he was recently skipped in the rotation and had one bad outing and one mediocre outing since that time. With the team now utilizing a 6 man rotation for the next several weeks, he will get some extra rest in between starts that will hopefully allow him to rediscover his form. 

Ketel Marte was signed to a 5 year, $76 M contract extension but has suffered hamstring injuries for the second year in a row and has slumped badly over the last month, hitting just .188 in his last 25 games without a homerun.

Bumgarner, Melancon, and Marte, account for nearly half of the 2022 payroll, and represent $42M of the team's $59M in guarantee contract for next year. Getting more positive production out of those three players is critical for a team that typically has a lower 3rd payroll in MLB. 

Can the D-backs finish at .500 ?  The odds may seem long, considering how many games they have left against the Dodgers. But with this young dynamic core of players, all it will take to get over the hump is some stabilization from veterans down the stretch, especially from the bullpen, and anything is possible.