D-backs-Dodgers NLDS Starting Pitching Preview

A look at who is set up to start for the D-backs and Dodgers in the NLDS and who has the starting pitching advantage.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the National League Division Series against their long-time arch-rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The D-backs advanced to the NLDS thanks to their sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card round of the MLB postseason bracket. The D-backs are set to try to enact some revenge for their 2017 sweep by the Dodgers in the NLDS back then. They will be looking to pay that back by at least winning this series using their youth, speed, and having the ability to pitch their top two starting pitchers twice each in this five-game series.

The 100-win Dodgers are a mighty foe similar to Goliath for the young and inexperienced 84-win Diamondbacks who take the form of David. Still, the D-backs have surpassed all expectations thus far so who is to say that they can't still continue to surprise the MLB world.

This version of the Dodgers doesn't resemble the 2017 version at all when it comes to the starting rotation. Clayton Kershaw is still there and will be leading the charge. H however, their 2017 rotation had Kershaw, Alex Wood, Yu Darvish, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Rich Hill. This year's postseason rotation has Kershaw, rookies Bobby Miller and Ryan Pepiot, and veteran Lance Lynn among a gaggle of relievers capable of throwing multiple innings.

Meanwhile, thanks to the D-backs sweeping the Brewers in two games, Merrill Kelly is available to start Game One of the NLDS. Also, due to the NLDS games having a built-in off-day on Sunday, the D-backs should be able to get away with starting just two different pitchers in four of the five games should the series reach five games. Take a look below for the confirmed and potential starting pitching matchups for the NLDS.

Game 1: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 7th, 6:20 p.m. AZ time, TBS

Merrill Kelly vs. Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is coming off yet another spectacular season from the 35-year-old left-hander despite another injury and missing a lot of time. He has thrown 131.2 innings this season, a 2.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a 13-5 record in another All-Star season. It was his highest FIP since his rookie season back in 2008. He has 137 strikeouts with just 40 walks but did give up the most home runs since his 2019 season with 19 allowed. He's entering the post-season off of an un-even September that saw him have a 2.33 ERA in 19.1 innings and four starts, but an FIP of 5.22. He walked 11 batters and struck out 17 while giving up three home runs.

Kershaw was particularly dominant at home this year with a 1.58 ERA in 57 innings while going 7-1 with 11 walks and 64 strikeouts. However, the story of Kershaw's struggles in the postseason is well documented. It's true to a degree. Kershaw has started 31 games in the postseason over his long career. He's thrown a quality start (meaning 6+ innings and 3 or fewer runs allowed) in 16 of them. That's a 51.6% quality start rate. This means it's basically a coin flip as to which version of the Kershaw will be on the mound. This has held true in recent years. He's made six starts in the postseason since 2020 and in three of them, he had a quality start. It will be interesting to see which version of Kershaw the D-backs will see. Will it be the guy with the 4.22 playoff ERA or the guy that is a dominant All-Star in the regular season?

Meanwhile, the D-backs will be starting Merrill Kelly. Kelly has never appeared in the playoffs before having pitched in Korea prior to joining the D-backs ahead of the 2019 season. Kelly threw 177.2 innings in his age-34 season. He went 12-8 over 30 starts with 187 strikeouts and 69 walks. His FIP was 3.85.

The 3.9 WAR pitcher did struggle to a degree on the road this season. Over 84 innings on the road, he had a 4.07 ERA with 33 walks, 81 strikeouts, and 42 runs allowed. However, if you subtract his August 29th start against LA and Sept. 14th start against the Mets, his ERA drops tremendously. When the D-backs needed him most, he stepped up in a big way. During September, even with the Mets clunker, he started six times and had a 3.22 ERA in 36.1 innings with 17 walks and 40 strikeouts.

The only worrying factor that Kelly will need to overcome has been his performance against the Dodgers. He has struggled against the Dodgers in his career. However, he started to turn it around against them this year. In four starts and 20.1 innings, he had a 3.98 ERA with 13 walks and 11 strikeouts. Those aren't great numbers, but they are better than his career numbers. The D-backs will be looking for a vintage Merrill the Mainstay performance in Game One.

Game 2: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 9th, 6:07 p.m. AZ time, TBS

Probables: Zac Gallen vs. Bobby Miller

Bobby Miller had a strong rookie season with the Dodgers. The right-hander went 11-4 over 22 starts with a 3.76 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 124.1 innings. He struck out 119 batters and walked just 32. He hasn't been confirmed to be the starter for the Dodgers, but is the likely option considering the season he's had.

Miller has faced the D-backs twice this year. Both times, he did quite well. Over 12 innings, he allowed just 11 hits, four runs, six walks, and struck out eight. The D-backs will have to stay patient against him and continue to work the walks and pitch count. Miller has started six games since Sept. 3rd and has thrown 36.2 innings. He has a 3.19 ERA and 3.23 FIP showing that he's only getting better as the season goes deeper.

On the D-backs side, Zac Gallen is likely to start. The 27-year-old right-hander lines up well for Monday's game having pitched yesterday to clinch the Wild Card series for the D-backs against the Brewers. It was a strong quality start in which he pitched six innings and gave up just two runs, five hits, three walks, and struck out four.

The potential CY Young winner had a 3.47 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 17-9 record over 34 starts and 210 innings. He allowed 188 hits, 47 walks, and struck out 220 batters. Gallen has been hit hard by the Dodgers this year. Over two starts and 10 innings, he's given up 11 runs and 15 hits with six walks and 10 strikeouts. He will have to fix that in order to get the D-backs another win in the playoffs.

Game 3: Dodgers at Diamondbacks, Wednesday, Oct. 11th, TBD, TBS

Probables: Lance Lynn/Ryan Pepiot vs. Brandon Pfaadt

The Dodgers haven't announced their rotation, nor have the D-backs. However, it can probably be assumed one of Lynn or Pepiot starts for the Dodgers. There are rumors that Lynn goes to the bullpen, but that remains to be seen. If Lynn starts, he's been much better in a Dodgers uniform than he was with the White Sox. Over 11 starts, he's pitched to a 4.36 ERA, a 7-2 record, and 64 innings with 47 strikeouts, 22 walks, and 16 home runs. His FIP though is 6.16, far worse than his FIP with the White Sox which was 5.19.

Pepiot is in his second MLB season, but still in his rookie season. He has started three of the eight games he's appeared in with a 2.14 ERA, 2-1 record, 42 innings, and 38 strikeouts. He's walked five batters and given up seven home runs with a 4.18 FIP.

Brandon Pfaadt is set up to start as well in what will likely be a bullpen game. The right-handed rookie made his first start in the postseason on Tuesday against the Brewers. He did struggle with contact and the home run ball. He gave up a home run, three runs, one walk, and seven hits in 2.2 innings. He did strike out four batters.

Overall, Pfaadt was 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA over 19 games, 18 starts. He threw 96 innings with 26 walks, 22 home runs, and 94 strikeouts. The potential is there for a strong No.3 starting pitcher in the future. He has faced the Dodgers twice before. He only lasted 8.2 innings while giving up nine earned runs, two home runs, four walks, and nine strikeouts.

The D-backs are only likely to start Pfaadt because Wednesday would be too soon a game for Merrill Kelly to start. It's likely that Pfaadt would pitch just the first four innings or so before giving way to the bullpen. Although, aside from the playoff outing, he was quite good in September. Over five games and four starts, he threw 25 innings and gave up just 12 runs, four walks, and struck out 30 batters. Good enough for a 4.32 ERA and 4.06 FIP.

Game 4: Dodgers at Diamondbacks, Thursday, Oct. 12th, TBD, TBS, if necessary

TBD vs. TBD

It's likely that this will be a rematch of Merrill Kelly and Clayton Kershaw, but it's not confirmed yet. However, the days line up and both teams would be able to start their guys on regular rest.

Game 5: Diamondbacks at Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 14th, TBD, TBS, if necessary

TBD vs. TBD

Once again, due to the unconfirmed starting pitching assignments, it isn't known who goes today. However, it's likely that it would be a rematch of Game Two where Gallen faces Miller once again. In what would be the ultimate game between the two rivals, it would be up to Gallen to once again clinch a playoff series for the D-backs.

One could certainly argue that the D-backs have the advantage when it comes to starting pitching. They have two true ace starters including a CY Young frontrunner plus a capable number three starter. The Dodgers have a mystery bag in Clayton Kershaw albeit a great one. Plus, they have untested rookie Miller and a struggling Lance Lynn or untested Ryan Pepiot.

The starting pitcher leverage, despite their poor history against the Dodgers, does lean toward the D-backs' favor. This could be the season that the D-backs finally get over the hump and take out the team that has beaten them for the past decade in the regular season and playoffs.