Diamondbacks 2022 Player Reviews: Kyle Nelson

The lefty rides his slider to a breakout season

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Status: Pre Arb 1, League Minimum

Kyle Nelson 2022 Stats / Baseball Reference

2022 Season Review

Kyle Nelson was taken by the Cleveland Guardians in the 15th round of the 2017 draft. He moved through their system successfully, posting a 2.07 ERA in 122 innings while advancing through the levels from Low A- up to AAA by the end of 2019. 

He had a very rough major league debut on September 10th 2020, giving up 4 runs in less than an inning. That was the only game he got into during the pandemic season. In 2021 he was pitching at the Guardians alternate training site when he was recalled on April 26th. After two scoreless outings he was sent to Triple-A Columbus for a few weeks and then recalled again. His first three outings back were scoreless as well, but then over his next three outings he gave up 10 runs and was optioned back to Columbus for the rest of the season. Over the final three months in Columbus he pitched poorly and was placed on waivers in November and selected by the Diamondbacks on November 24th, 2021

In Spring training new pitching coach Brent Strom worked with Nelson and they came up with a very slider heavy approach for the 2022 season. For the year Nelson would throw 64% sliders and 36% four seam fastballs. That was the fourth highest slider percentage of any pitcher in MLB with 30 or more innings pitched. With above average spin rate and vertical movement it was very effective. 

Through May 17th Nelson appeared in 15 games, allowing just two runs. His 1.23 ERA was backed up by a 1.54 FIP due to allowing just two walks and zero homers while striking out 16. He registered five holds and allowed just one of 10 inherited runners to score during this stretch. His season was then interrupted  for a little over a week due to Covid-19.   

Nelson pitched a scoreless outing upon returning May 28th but then had a hiccup the very next day. Coming into a bases loaded jam in relief of Humberto Castellanos in the 5th inning, he allowed a two run double, with both runs being charged to Castellanos, then allowed a run of his own in the next inning. He allowed a run in his next outing on June 5th as well. But then Nelson settled back down. Over his next 20 outings through August 2nd he allowed just three runs, two of which were earned. There were some warning signs however as he walked six and struck out only eight during that stretch, and allowed three of six inherited runners to score. 

It was at that point that a sore back occurred, requiring Nelson to spend over three weeks on the injured list between August 8th and September 1st. When he returned he struggled with control, walking three batters in his first outing back. Walks were an issue for the rest of the season. On September 12th he injured his elbow during an outing against the Dodgers in which he gave up three runs without retiring a batter. He was placed on the IL on September 15th with left elbow inflammation and did not return for the rest of the year. 

Nelson's year end ERA was a full run lower than his FIP, and he ended up with 8-21, 38% inherited runners scored after starting off 1-10. (League average is usually around 30%). This is not say he did not pitch well. It was still a very successful season for the left hander. He had just a .194 batting average against vs. both left and right hand batters, and allowed only one homer all year. He certainly ranks among the better waiver wire pickups in the Mike Hazen era. However it is especially important when evaluating relievers to look beyond ERA, as small sample size, and inherited runners issues can sometimes mask true underlying performance. 

2023 Outlook

Entering his  second pre-arb season Nelson is not arbitration eligible until 2025 and won't be a free agent until 2028. He should be able to return in spring training  without issue after a full off season. Anecdotally it seems like pitchers with such heavy slider usage tend to have sore elbows more often however. The combination of back and elbow injuries he endured are somewhat concerning for the left hander. Nelson is listed at 6'1", 175 pounds, but he does not appear that tall in person. The team will need to monitor his usage closer in spring training and the early part of the year to make sure he can stand up to the rigors of a 162 game season.