Diamondbacks 2023 Player Reviews: Pavin Smith

A second straight down season puts Smith's future in Arizona in doubt

This article is part of a series of player reviews for the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks.  It was a historic year for the franchise, winning 84 games to make the postseason and then advancing all the way to game five of the World Series before bowing out to the Texas Rangers. There are 54 players in all that had at least one at bat or pitched at least one inning for the team this past season.  They are being presented in reverse order of their aWAR produced, which is the average of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs WAR. These are their season stories.

Pavin Smith: -0.8 aWAR

Pavin Smith Statistics / Jack Sommers

Pavin Smith was drafted in 2017 with the 7th overall pick by the Diamondbacks. Making his major league debut during the 2020 pandemic season, Smith played a full rookie season in 2021. He held his own at the plate, batting .267 and posting a near league average 98 OPS+ (Park and League adjusted, 100 - average).  A first baseman coming up, he was often played out of position in the outfield, especially centerfield. Negative numbers on defense have continued to detract from his value, as his hitting progress has stalled. 

Smith slumped to .222 with a .667 OPS, and then bottomed out in 2023.  He did not make the initial opening day roster, but was quickly promoted on April 9th.  Smith started off hot, with a two-hit game, and then hit a grand slam April 17th followed by a solo shot in his next game on April 19th.  Through his first seven games he went 8-for-21, .381 with three doubles, two homers and 10 RBI. 

Other highlights included a pinch-hit walk-off walk on May 6th on May 8th against the Nationals. On May 20th he hit a 7th inning two-run homer against the Pirates to key a comeback win.  His three-run homer on May 29th against Karl Kauffmann of the Rockies in the 2nd inning was the big blow in a five run frame that erased a 4-2 deficit on the way to a 7-5 victory. 

Pavin Smith 2023 Highlights https://t.co/cTDfAClDeS #MLBFilmRoom via @MLB

— Jack Sommers (@shoewizard59) November 7, 2023

Overall however there just weren't enough of these highlights and Smith slumped badly for the most part. For a time he kept his slash line afloat by drawing a lot of walks, but eventually even that went away. By June 29th he was batting just .190 and displaying little power with just a .332 slugging percentage.  The team optioned him back to Triple-A Reno.  Smith did not let the demotion get him down, as he went to work trying to address the issues that caused the slump, and hit extremely well in July and August. 

Smith was recalled when rosters expanded on September 1st, but played sparingly going 1-for-7 with three walks before being optioned out again after the game on September 11th. It was somewhat of a surprise then when Smith was placed on the Diamondbacks postseason roster to face the Brewers. He did not play in that series and got just one pinch at bat in the Divisional series against the Dodgers. He was able to make an impact in the NLCS against the Phillies however.

In Game 3 he came on as a pinch hitter in the 7th inning, singling in the at bat, and then stayed in the game as the designated hitter. In the 9th inning he singled again, and eventually scored the winning run from third on Ketel Marte's walk-off single in the 9th.  Smith had another pinch hit single in Game 4 of that series. Those appearances earned him a start in Game 5, but he went 0-4 and that was the end of his postseason production. He had one hitless at bat in the World Series. 

2024 Status and Outlook:

Having long since been moved off first base due to Christian Walker's emergence, and proven to be a liability in the outfield, Smith is reduced to left-handed DH and pinch hit duties, with only the very occasional start in the field. The problem is he simply is not hitting enough. His technically sound swing and good batted ball metrics have never translated into consistent production required from a player that cannot provide value with the glove or with his legs. 

Smith still has one option year remaining, and may yet earn more playing time. He will be arbitration eligible after the 2024 season, and his salary will escalate accordingly. If he does not produce next year he will be a non-tender candidate following the season.  

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