Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Jake McCarthy

The young outfielder is projected for a bounce-back season in a reduced role.

This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.

After an extremely productive 2022 season, in which he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, left-handed outfielder Jake McCarthy struggled for most of 2023. He spent two stints down in Triple-A, posting an exceptional .360/.416/.594/1.010 slash, with nine home runs and 36 RBI in Reno.

But despite a couple of productive months in the majors, he mostly regressed, struggling to provide power and consistent hitting and seeing even less service time than 2022. While he has been known to provide high-tier offense due to his speed, and is a serviceable defensive outfielder, he and D-backs fans alike will look for him to improve to a more consistent pace in 2024.

The Projection

Alex D'Agostino

Our projections expect to see Jake in an even more reduced role, likely relegated to a fourth outfielder role with occasional starts against right-handed pitching. 

But, even with that reduced playing time, the composite of ZiPS and Steamer projections see McCarthy returning to better status of hitter in 2024. He's projected to raise his average by nearly 20 points, reach base at a slightly higher rate, and slug significantly more than his weak 2023. 

McCarthy only hit two home runs for the D-backs in 2023, with just 16 RBI, despite having only 40 fewer plate appearances. ZiPS expects a very significant upgrade in those categories, projecting nine home runs and 56 RBI, whereas Steamer projects a more modest six home runs and 33 RBI. Either end of those projections would unfortunately be much better numbers than his 2023 campaign.

While he is expected a very slight decrease in strikeout rate and walk rate, both systems expect him to produce more WAR than his 0.6 of the previous season. These projection outlets likely see more of a return to the mean, considering how low his numbers were compared to how high they were two seasons ago.

Why McCarthy might outperform this projection

McCarthy didn't burst onto the scene like a Corbin Carroll type player, but he quietly had a massive first full season in 2022. 

The ability is there, as we have seen before. The likelihood that McCarthy experienced a simple sophomore slump, marred by some inconsistency is decently high. McCarthy could easily exceed his numbers and return closer to his 2022 prowess if he's able to get back into a rhythm and add some pop to his bat.

His speed rivals that of Corbin Carroll, making him an exceptional pinch runner and a menace on the base paths. Even in a down year, McCarthy was 26/30 in stolen bases.

He was incredible in his Triple-A action in 2023. As an actual player, he has the skillset to hit beyond the minor league level, it's just the consistency that remains problematic. Following his first recall, late in May of 2023, McCarthy slashed .311/.374/.427/.801 with a 119 wRC+ through the month of June. 

He began to cool down again, eventually hitting .192 in the first half of August but, somehow, still reached base at a .323 clip. He has the plate discipline, and an ability to walk and create chaos for opposing teams. His value comes from more than his ability to slug, so if he's able to keep up what he does well, with a little more consistency and pop, he can outperform his numbers, which are already relatively optimistic.

While his arm value isn't much, his speed provides an exceptional ability to run down balls, making him a decent defensive asset on top of his offensive potential.

McCarthy is a coachable young player, who always seems to come back from Triple-A with a boost in confidence and swing. If there's a way for the D-backs' coaching staff to harness that and turn it into consistency, McCarthy could be in store for a resurgent 2024.

Why McCarthy might underperform this projection

McCarthy struggled in almost all aspects of the game in 2023. Someone with his speed can get away with hitting more ground balls and weaker contact, but they don't make for an auspicious outlook on their career as a whole.

With fewer opportunities to contribute, the young outfielder could struggle to find his rhythm again, which could lead to another rocky season at the plate. While he did provide a top 2% baserunning value in his 2022 campaign, even his most productive season saw bottom-tier results in nearly every hitting category, especially hard-hit, barrel and average exit velocity.

His expected stats aren't encouraging either. Again, even in his most productive 2022 season, McCarthy had an xBA of .249 and an xSLG of .357. This, coupled with his 99th percentile sprint speed, could suggest that he was doing more with less for all of his major league time.

Rarely did any of his base hits travel past the shallow outfield. His ability to turn hits into extra-base hits due to speed is something to note. While that is a plus for him as an asset, it doesn't bode well for his personal statistics going forwards, unless improvements are made.

He's had a ground ball rate of well over 50% in each of his major league seasons, nearly 10% higher than league average each year. If that doesn't significantly improve, and he can't deliver harder hit balls, he likely won't be used as more than a pinch-runner, decreasing his playing opportunities and subsequently his chance to exceed projections.

Sure, there's plenty of time for the 25-year old to work on his swing, but there's a danger of him becoming a quintessential "AAAA" player, who rakes in Triple-A but can't reach the next level of big league production. Unless strides are made with his swing, he likely won't be able to have a significant bounce-back season in 2024.

Summary

Jake McCarthy didn't look like his 2022 self last season. His projections expect a return to his mean, which is a decently solid slash, but his underlying metrics suggest that might be difficult for the young outfielder to exceed if improvements aren't made. His lack of power and ability to make solid contact put him in a tough spot, and he could be affected by lowered playing time. However, being that he's entering just his third full season, any jump in consistency and confidence could see him return to 2022 form.

Jake McCarthy Had a Tumultuous Season in 2023