Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Joc Pederson

The D-backs' DH acquisition is projected a slight bounce-back with Arizona.

This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 Spring Training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own, and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.

The D-backs recently signed left-handed DH/OF Joc Pederson to a one-year deal. Pederson is coming off a down year with the San Francisco Giants, and looking for a fresh start with Arizona to return to form.

Although his numbers did look modest in 2023, he still produced at a decent rate, reached base at a decent rate and put up a positive aWAR. He's just two seasons removed from a 146 wRC+ season, and has been consistently able to produce an above-average OPS. 

The Projection

Joc Pederson composite projection / Jack Sommers

Pederson is expected to see a large number of plate appearances, and produce at a level closer to what we've seen out of the lefty in 2024. Notably, his power is projected to increase at a solid rate, as his slug and OPS take a jump to .454 and .794, and his ISO (isolated power) increases by over 20 points.

He's projected to walk at a lower rate and strike out somewhat more frequently, but neither of these projected numbers are below average. He's expected to hit around .250, with Steamer in particular giving him a .254 average for the 2024 season.

His aWAR is expected to double as a result of these increased numbers, and Pederson will almost certainly see at-bats against every right-handed pitcher Arizona faces. Steamer expects a 70-RBI season for the veteran, coupled with 23 home runs. ZiPS isn't as generous, but still gives Pederson the benefit of the doubt with regard to a return to production.

Why Pederson might outperform this projection

Pederson is a complex case when it comes to his offensive production. His career average wRC+ sits at 117, or 17% above league average. However, he has been an extreme case of up-and-down when it comes to outperforming or underperforming his career average, as his OPS from year to year usually comes in either well above his personal average, or well below.

FanGraphs

However, this also shows that he's almost always at or above league average hitting numbers, regardless of whether he has an up or down year. 

All in all, Pederson is always an effective bat, even if his batting average might not look impressive right away. He's a menace to right-handed pitchers, and usually comes with good plate discipline, as he walked at a 13.4% rate in 2023. 

Coming over from a more pitcher-friendly Oracle Pard to Chase Field could also significantly help Pederson's batted ball luck and power numbers.

His underlying metrics all look much better than one might expect. Even in a down year in 2023, he ranked in the top 10% of MLB in xwOBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and walk rate. 

He barreled the ball at a 79th percentile rate, and his .454 slugging percentage was backed up by his xSLG, as he ranked in the 82nd percentile in said category with a .481, meaning he hit for power at an even better rate than his batted ball luck allowed.

Pederson is also very good in clutch time, as he hit .483 in high leverage last year,  including a .263 average with 32 RBI in RISP situations. 

His Statcast metrics haven't actually changed a huge amount from year to year. Sure, he's had down years, but he always ranked highly in at least one or two categories, and he's improved certain metrics over the course of his career, like his strikeout rate and overall plate discipline.

Even his worst hitting metrics hovered around average last year. A .235 BA does not do justice to the solid hitter Pederson is, and, therefore, his .249/.340/.454/.794 projection is one that he could easily outperform, especially due to the fact that he will be seeing mostly--if not entirely--right-handed pitchers, giving him a good chance to produce at a much higher level than last season and be the big power bat Arizona needed.

Why Pederson might underperform this projection

Work ethic has been a question mark for Pederson. His conditioning state is something the lefty vet has been scrutinized for in the past, and his 2024 season could be affected by the amount he's truly bought in to the D-backs culture.

Pederson, in his introductory press conference, expressed his excitement to work with outfield and first base coach Dave McKay, as well as manager Torey Lovullo. That, of course, came with the caveat that Pederson wants to prove he is an effective defensive outfielder who can play the field more frequently.

Pederson's defensive metrics have been, putting it nicely, sub-par for most of his career. In the outfield, he's posted a career -30 rDRS, with a -5 total for his 2023 outfield work. He doesn't receive many outfield starts for this reason, but he talked about his desire to prove to the D-backs that he can be a contributor on defense. Lovullo isn't one to give guys chances just because he wants to be their friend, as Pderson himself noted in the presser, so Pederson will have his hands full trying to show McKay and Lovullo that he deserves outfield playing time.

This defensive quandary could have a negative impact on his aWAR if he does get playing time out there, although that is a big if when it comes to the D-backs young outfield corp's prowess in the range department.

Offensively, Pederson's 2023 Statcast metrics are actually some of his best in recent years. Even though his numbers themselves showed a down year, it's possible he is actually on the cusp of a legitimate down year, and, at 32, with the question of his physical fitness, he could be in store to be a less effective player across the board. 

It won't be hard for him to be slotted as the primary DH against right-handers, but if he does get opportunity against southpaws, who he is statistically poor against across his career, those plate appearances could also alter his numbers. Considering he walked at an exceptionally high rate in 2023, his OBP and subsequent OPS could falter if he doesn't continue that elite plate discipline and produce at a higher rate from a hitting standpoint.

Summary

Pederson wasn't the big name addition D-backs fans might have been hoping for, but his projections do expect him to be an impact bat for Arizona. He's expected to hit harder and more consistently, and his underlying metrics show that he has been an even better hitter than his slash might provide. That being said, he could be in for another down year at age 32, and with possible regression on the horizon at the plate and a history of poor defense, he could be relegated to more of an average platoon bat without legitimate thump in 2024.

Joc Pederson Excited To Work With D-backs Team, Coaches