Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Randal Grichuk

The veteran outfielder's modest projections might not account for his usage.

The Diamondbacks recently signed right-handed hitting veteran Randal Grichuk to a one-year deal. A lefty-killing slugger, Grichuk will be brought on to likely serve as both outfield depth and the other half of a platoon DH, along with righty-mashing Joc Pederson.

Grichuk is coming off a decent year at the plate, where he slashed .267/.321/.459, but his lefty-only splits award him an impressive .995 OPS, and he's hit .316 against left-handed pitching since 2022.

He was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Los Angeles Angels at the deadline in 2024, and despite starting hot in Colorado, he struggled to a .216 average and .264 OBP.

His glove isn't exactly the gold standard, but he does have a positive 8 rDRS over his career and can offer the D-backs serviceable relief in the outfield if needed.

The Projection

Randal Grichuk's 2024 projection / Alex D'Agostino

Grichuk's projection is a bit modest. In only 273 plate appearances, he's expected to have a batting average over 20 points lower, reach base nearly 30 points lower, and slug 60 points lower. His OPS is near to a 100-point drop, and his ISO, walk rate, and strikeout rate all spike to worse numbers.

One year removed from 0.9 aWAR, he's barely expected to add any positive WAR value to the D-backs.

While some of these rate percentages dropping are due to his age, and the unimpressive stretch he had to close out 2023, the WAR dip could be attributed to lower use, as he's never been a platoon hitter in his career. 

Overall, the projections are not kind to Grichuk, but the raw numbers don't necessarily take into account some of the factors at play for his usage.

Why Grichuk might outperform this projection

Grichuk has, as previously mentioned, never been a platoon bat. Coming over to the D-backs, that will be precisely what he is. A part-time DH, and part-time backup outfielder, but with an emphasis on facing left-handed pitching.

Over the last four years of his career, 70% of Grichuk's plate appearances came against right-handed pitchers, who he is significantly less proficient at hitting than lefties. Against left-handers in 2023, he slashed .328/.388/.607 with a .995 OPS. He has a career .822 OPS against lefties, which includes a .239 career ISO (isolated power). 

His numbers against right-handers are significantly lower, slashing .244/294/.401 against righties in 2023. Where this season will look different is in his usage. Considering his normal split of plate appearances is about 70/30 in favor of facing right-handers, the D-backs will likely try to protect him from righties as much as possible, and it's reasonable to estimate a flip to about 60% of plate appearances against left-handers. 

About his significant dip in stats after being traded to the Angels, D-backs general manager Mike Hazen mentioned that the concern for that stretch of Grichuk's numbers is low. As situations, environments, and teams as a whole change for players traded at the deadline, so can their numbers. Hazen doesn't feel as if the D-backs will put "a lot of stock" into his rough stretch in 2023.

If the right-handed slugger does see a majority of plate appearances against left-handers, there's little doubt in his ability to smash these low projections. He's hit the ball extremely hard consistently throughout his career, and even in down years, with low OBPs, he's found a way to slug over .400. He doesn't strike out at a high rate, and his expected stats all either align with or outrank his actual numbers

If he does flip to a 60/40 ratio or better of facing southpaws, expect a significant outperformance concerning his percentage stats.

Why Grichuk might underperform this projection

Grichuk is 32, and is coming off one of his worst career stretches. Considering his last couple of seasons--outside a half-season in Anaheim--have come in Colorado, the benefit of the hitter-friendly Coors field might have helped to inflate some of his numbers in 2022 and 2023. 

It's possible that his power truly is in decline, and the numbers he put up with the Angels are closer to the new norm than his lefty splits might lead us to believe. 

Grichuk was in the lower half of MLB in most of his Statcast percentiles, and had a difficult time defensively, posting negative rDRS. He ranked in the bottom 5% of MLB in outs above average, and his average speed and arm value didn't provide a ton of boost to his defensive output.

Additionally, according to MLB's Steve Gilbert, Grichuk underwent ankle surgery last month to remove bone spurs from his right ankle. Although the team is optimistic about his readiness for Opening Day, this could at the very least impede his ability to run the bases well or play the outfield, and he will not play in Cactus League games initially.

While he is considered a serviceable outfielder, it's possible that some rougher times in the field could impact his aWAR. His OBP is usually low because he seldom walks. If he's not hitting for power as strongly, we'll likely see a decline in his overall numbers and he'll be less of an impact at the plate. The possibility of a DH platoon also could take away some of the everyday WAR opportunities defensively, although depending on his defensive abilities that could be a boost to his numbers.

Grichuk's projections are modest, but a slow start, coupled with any decrease in power or need to face right-handers more frequently could see them dip even more through the late portion of his career.

Summary

Grichuk has been a consistent lefty-killing power bat. Although he struggled in the back half of 2023, he still put up a decent slug, and his lefty splits were a massive improvement to his overall averages. Since he's coming to platoon for the D-backs and will likely face mostly left-handers, his percentage numbers could easily skyrocket. However, an age-32 season coming off surgery and a down year could be the beginning of the end, and his numbers might look closer to his Anaheim totals than his southpaw percentages.

Hazen, Lovullo Speak on Grichuk Signing