Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Tommy Henry

The southpaw is projected to have a slight dip in his return from injury

This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.

Tommy Henry struggled in his first nine MLB starts in 2022. His 2023 looked to be an improvement, as his ERA sat at a solid 4.15, but his season was ultimately cut short at just 89 innings when he landed on the Injured List with left elbow inflammation.

The 26-year old left-hander struggled at times in his shortened 2023, but was able to put together some very solid starts, and was asked to take on the duties of a #2 starter for a spell when twin ace Merrill Kelly went down with an injury. Henry showed a tendency to walk batters and fail to rack up strikeouts, but avoided being hit hard, and showed a confidence on the mound before being forced to shut it down before the postseason.

The Projection

Alex D'Agostino

Our composite projections expect Henry to have a slight regression in ERA, and to hover around the same general percentage statistics. Both ZiPS and Steamer expect Henry to exhibit similar struggles with walks, but with a slightly improved strikeout rate.

However, our projections only have Henry pitching a few more innings than his injury-shortened 2023. Staying healthy and consistent will be crucial for the left-hander to be able to outperform these projections and be a more well-rounded starter. Henry is projected to pitch to a higher FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than ERA, suggesting he will be the benefit of Arizona's solid defense. 

Overall, the 2024 outlook is very similar to his 2023 campaign, despite the likelihood of Henry seeing a lower-pressure role next season. His strikeout rate, walk rate and home runs per nine are all below average, although his aWAR still has him providing positive value to the D-backs, but his projected innings sticking around only half a season again is a concerning look.

Why Henry might outperform this projection

Henry has never pitched a full season in MLB. At 26 years old, he has plenty of time to improve. He pitched to an impressive 2.87 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his first month of action, including a scoreless relief appearance.

Even after some rough patches in 2023, opponents still only hit .251 against him on the season. Although he did struggle with walks, allowing 3.71 walks per nine, what was remarkable is Henry's ability to stay strong through tough innings and limit damage as much as possible.

Henry sported a near 77% LOB (left on base) percentage, meaning runners who reached base only scored at a 23% clip. Considering Henry's high number of walks and his high 1.36 WHIP on the season, it's extremely impressive to see so few score.

Henry allowed just a .150 batting average against him in high leverage situations, and a .229 average with men on base. If he can find a way to limit his baserunners early in outings, he can easily couple that with his ability to step up in high pressure situations and be a very effective arm.

Henry's slider was his best weapon, with his breaking run value ranking in the top 10% of MLB (9). He allowed very little hard contact, ranking in the 73rd percentile in average exit velocity, and the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate.

He also was able to make batters chase outside the zone at a decent rate, with a 74th percentile in chases. What's more encouraging about Henry than some of the other low-strikeout guys is his ability to pitch to soft contact and get out of tough spots when he needed to hold it down.

While I might start to sound like a broken record in these projections articles with this statement, there should also always be faith in pitching coach Brent Strom and his ability to develop shakier pitchers into effective arms.

If Henry is able to stay healthy and consistent, it won't be too lofty of a goal to overcome his 4.58 projected ERA, and even a slight improvement in the control department can help transition him into a much more effective pitcher than the numbers may expect.

Why Henry might underperform his projection

There are also a handful of concerns about the sustainability of Henry's game. His strikeout and walk rates are both exceptionally below average. His strikeout rate translates to only 6.6 strikeouts per nine, and his tendency to get into long, laboring innings will be tough on his longevity if he can't improve his control. Walking nearly four batters per nine is not a recipe for a sustained career as a starter.

While his arsenal of pitches is solid enough for a soft-contact pitcher, his changeup is the only pitch that has above average movement. Due to a  fastball that barely hovers  above 90mph, he's going to have to emphasize an improvement in command and control.

His slider is his best weapon, and he's coming off a season that was ended by an elbow injury. It could be tough to expect him to stay healthy for extended periods of time and be a starter that can pitch 150 or more innings in a season frequently. If he can't utilize the zone and spot his fastball better, he won't be able to rely on lucky soft contact.

Considering his career FIP is higher than his ERA, his actual stuff and command could have simply been the benefit of good fielding and poor swings. Henry could be in line for regression in 2024, and his health and ability to go long in starts are both large question marks.

Summary

Henry is slated to take the final starting spot in the D-backs rotation in 2024. While he is expected to regress somewhat after his numbers showed a statistically solid 2023, this could be the effect of a return to the mean. However, his ability to outperform is also dependent on whether or not he can avoid his walk problem. If he can even slightly up his K rate while walking fewer batters without suffering any more health problems, he can easily become a reliable arm in the rotation, but his underlying control issues, coupled with a lack of velocity and movement could also lead to some more growing pains and a shortened career as a starter.

Tommy Henry "Fully Healthy," Looking Ahead to 2024