Diamondbacks 2024 Projections: Justin Martinez

Throwing more strikes is a priority for the young flamethrower.

This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 Spring Training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own, and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.

Justin Martinez remains one of the most intriguing arms in the D-backs system. The 22-year-old averages triple digits on his 4-seamer with arguably the best offspeed pitch in the farm system, but has issues landing them for strikes. As a result, he's been up-and-down from Triple-A and left off the postseason roster altogether.

Pitching coach Brent Strom equated pitching with that kind of velocity as driving a Porsche. Instead of trying to hit corners, he has the type of stuff to be aggressive in the strike zone. And when it's coming in at 100+ MPH, any kind of offspeed pitch is going to have a devastating effect on hitters. It may take some time for everything to click, but given the stuff and makeup he still has a bright future as a reliever.

Martinez is expected to begin the season with the D-backs Triple-A affiliate in Reno, but could be on a short list of call-up candidates during the season.

The Projection

Michael McDermott

Martinez is expected to get around 20 games at the major league level in 2024, averaging roughly an inning. While his strikeout and walk rates improve over their 2023 levels, there are still too many walks in that profile. However this would be considered a big step in the right direction. 

The big standouts is a reduction in the ERA to an acceptable 4.31 mark, although dinged by FIP due to the high walk rate and average home run per nine innings. It will be interesting to see if he can suppress home runs, as his arsenal suggests a pitcher who could yield a very high ground ball rate. Add in the ground balls to the whiffs and he has the potential to be an important arm in the backend of the bullpen if everything goes right.

Why Martinez Could Beat This Projection

The main reason he would beat this projection is he showcases the ability to land more strikes in his opportunities. He's had a full season now since recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he has an opportunity to build on what he's learned in the 2023 season.

If Martinez is able to land his nasty stuff, both in the strike zone and in areas that should induce chases, it's only a matter of time before he becomes a significant factor in the bullpen. However this process may take months, even years before he gets to the level necessary to become a back of the bullpen arm.

Why Martinez Might Not Beat This Projection

It very much depends on when those opportunities might surface. The team faces a bit of a roster crunch for the final spot of their bullpen, whether it's carrying a converted starter or going for Corbin Martin or Luis Frías. Left-hander Kyle Nelson will likely be one of the first arms called up if he doesn't make the roster, so multiple openings in the bullpen would have to happen for Martinez to get another shot.

Also it remains to be seen if Martinez has improved his strike-throwing ability. Major league hitters are far too disciplined and will force him back in the strike zone if he's unable to land his heater. That will lead to walks and home runs, which creates a very frustrating result. With the D-backs expected to contend in 2024, their patience with Martinez is going to run thin real quick if he can't execute his pitches.

Summary

Landing more strikes is a key priority for Martinez to not only get back to the big leagues, but also stick. His stuff is downright overpowering for hitters, when he's right he's either missing bats or getting ground balls. There's still a long way to go for him to become a back end of the bullpen arm, but the combination of stuff and makeup are enough to keep believing in him.