Diamondbacks Face Stiff Odds to Climb Up in MLB Draft

Arizona only has a 1.4% chance of getting the first overall pick and only a 12.5% chance of picking in the Top-6.

The first ever draft lottery for the MLB Draft will take place tonight at 8:30pm Eastern Time, 6:30pm MST. The lottery itself only covers the first six picks of the draft, with the next 12 based on reverse order standings of the teams remaining. In previous years, the draft was based solely on reverse order standings. 

Here are the odds for the No. 1 overall pick for the 18 teams that did not make the post-season:

1. Washington Nationals (55-107): 16.5%
2. Oakland Athletics (60-102): 16.5%
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-100): 16.5% 
4. Cincinnati Reds (62-100): 13.25%
5. Kansas City Royals (65-97): 10%
6. Detroit Tigers (66-96): 7.5%
7. Texas Rangers (68-94): 5.5%
8. Colorado Rockies (68-94): 3.9%
9. Miami Marlins (69-93): 2.7%
10. Los Angeles Angels (73-89): 1.8%
11. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88): 1.4%
12. Chicago Cubs (74-88): 1.1%
13. Minnesota Twins (78-84): 0.9%
14. Boston Red Sox (78-84): 0.76%
15. Chicago White Sox (81-81): 0.62%
16. San Francisco Giants (81-81): 0.48%
17. Baltimore Orioles (83-79): 0.36%
18. Milwaukee Brewers (86-76): 0.23%

The D-backs face stiff odds in order to be able to move up in the draft. According to Tankathon, Arizona has a 12.5% chance of landing a Top-6 pick. Landing a pick that high would be huge, as the slot bonus value for the sixth overall selection would be over $6 million vs. the $4.78 million with the 11th pick. Tankathon also gives Arizona a 54.9% chance that they'll stay put in the lottery and a 32.7% chance they pick later than 11th. Handicapping those odds, the D-backs are seven times more likely to pick 11th or later than move up to the top six picks.

The lottery was instituted in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement to deter teams from undergoing a three to four year process of putting up a noncompetitive roster for most of the season to improve their draft position, common referred to as tanking. The Astros are the most recent example of a tank, as they had the first overall selection in three straight drafts during their rebuild. All teams who did not make the postseason in 2022 are eligible to participate in the lottery. 

Major League Baseball added restrictions to the lottery, to prevent longer rebuilds like Houston. Non-revenue sharing teams can only participate in the lottery for two straight years, with revenue-sharing teams getting a maximum of three. Teams that are not eligible to participate in the lottery cannot pick higher than 10th. 

Before the first lottery has even taken place, it seems that there has already been an impact on how teams are responding. Speaking last night, D-backs GM Mike Hazen expressed his thoughts on the draft lottery and the overall competitive landscape in MLB:

"I think it's good for the game. There's a level of excitement around it. It's interesting, we all talk about it. Every team that is in the lottery is dreaming about hitting the lottery. "

"The other dynamic that's at play is I think the percentage of have nots is way lower than it's ever been.....I think it's probably in the mid 20's somewhere of teams that are realistically looking at contending, or thinking they're contending. Nobody wants to do a prospect trade. And rightly so. Everybody wants major league players."