Diamondbacks Lead Trio of Unlikely NL Wild Contenders
Just past the quarter pole in the MLB season, three unlikely contenders have emerged for the National League Wild Card. The Diamondbacks, Pirates and Marlins all currently hold the top three spots. A combination of surprisingly strong performances from these teams, coupled with the underperformance of several teams expected to be in the mix has led to an upside down standings table at the moment.
The projection systems and odds makers in Las Vegas are still not buying into any those three teams making the playoffs just yet. The Mets, Phillies, and Padres are all expected to do better than they have been going forward, but for the moment the fact is three young, improving teams are making some noise. Sometimes young teams unexpectedly arrive a year or two early, and that may be the case with at least one or two of these three teams. The Diamondbacks and Pirates both have positive run differentials, and their records might be a little more sustainable than the Marlins, who have a large negative run differential of -54, but a 14-1 record in one run games.
Jack Sommers
The D-backs and Pirates face off for an important three game series this weekend in Pittsburgh. Both teams will be looking to make a statement, establishing their legitimacy as a playoff contender. As can be gleaned from the table above, the D-backs have the better offense, but the Pirates have the better pitching staff especially in the bullpen. The D-backs have the edge in defense and baserunning. Below is a more granular look at how they compare in key batting and pitching categories. D-backs Stats & Pirates Stats
Offense
Jack Sommers
The Diamondbacks offense has been a mix of veterans and first and second year players producing at a high level. Christian Walker is tied for fourth in the NL with 11 homers. Lourdes Gurriel Jr is in the top 10 in the league with a .310 Batting average and .924 OPS. Rookie of the year contender Corbin Carroll is batting .279 with an .855 OPS including six homers. Second year players Geraldo Perdomo (.330) and Gabriel Moreno (.321) are posting high batting averages while playing above average defense at shortstop and catcher respectively.
The Pirates star centerfielder Bryan Reynolds is batting .296, but has only five homers and 10 walks so far. Expect his .832 OPS to go up as the season progresses. Connor Joe's .888 OPS is surprisingly the best on the team. He has a .267/.358/.525 triple slash. Veteran Andrew McCutchen returned to Pittsburgh on a one year deal and has swatted seven homers and has an .812 OPS.
Pitching and Defense
Jack Sommers
Both teams have a Cy Young contender, Zac Gallen (6-1, 2.35) for the D-backs and Mitch Keller, (5-1, 2.38) for the Pirates. The D-backs number two starter Merrill Kelly has been good too, going 4-3 , 2.93. So has Vince Velasquez, who is 4-3, with a 3.06 ERA. Velasquez had to go on the IL with an inflamed elbow on May 5th, and won't be back for another week or two.
After that however there is a steep drop off for the D-backs when comparing the quality of the rotations. The D-backs have struggled to get consistent starting pitching beyond their top two. After having to DFA Madison Bumgarner and losing Zach Davies for six weeks due to an oblique injury, they've been forced to give all those starts to rookies and second year pitchers. Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, Brandon Pfaadt and the previously optioned Drey Jameson have all taken turns struggling to find consistency at the major league level.
Rich Hill, Roansy Contreras and Johan Oviedo have not been outstanding for the Pirates, but they've been solid enough to hand it over to one of the better bullpens in the league. Standout closer David Bednar has a 0.56 ERA and nine saves. The D-backs bullpen meanwhile has continued to be a sore spot for the organization. While pitching better overall of last, they went with a seven man bullpen for over two weeks, taxing their relievers. That came home to roost during a 12-inning game against the A's on Tuesday night, a game they lost 9-8.
A series victory for either team would be another step forward towards legitimizing their status as contenders. But a series loss for either team would create questions. The D-backs struggled against the lowly Oakland A's despite taking the series 2-1. The Pirates had rushed out to a 20-8 record but then dropped seven straight and 11 of 12. They've won two of their last three however, including an 8-0 victory over the Tigers on Wednesday. Stay with us at Inside the Diamondbacks as we detail the pitching and lineup matchups throughout the series starting tomorrow.
