D-backs Presented With Unique Opportunity in 2023
The Diamondbacks have established themselves as a surprise contender in the National League. After 60 games, they sit at 35-25 and tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the National League West. They enter play with the third best run differential (+19) in the NL, trailing just the Atlanta Braves (+63) and the Dodgers (+55).
Last weekend the D-backs had a chance to measure themselves against the Braves, a team with a young core locked down for the foreseeable future and a championship pedigree. The D-backs were competitive in all three games, but in the final two games were unable to get the key hit or make the key pitch to win the game. It's a lesson they've learned the hard way in terms of losses, but provides the players a teaching moment for what it takes to beat a title contender.
While the result of the series was disappointing, it should not be something to be discouraged over. With teams like the Padres, Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals off to a slow start, the National League playoff picture couldn't be more wide open, presenting an opportunity for the D-backs to strike. Arizona hasn't sniffed the playoffs in the past five seasons, so they shouldn't let this opportunity go by. If we're looking at the 2024 season as the year the team pushes its chips to the center of the table, any postseason experience they get this year becomes even more valuable.
The average odds of the team to make the playoffs is 57.2%, which is broken down below. That's up from 48.5% when we last took a look on May 26th.
Jack Siommers
Back in February, general manager Mike Hazen defined a successful 2023 season as being in position to be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline and competing for a playoff spot in the final weeks of the season. If they can get to at least 52 wins before the All-Star break, which would be a stretch of playing .500 in their next 34 games, they're in great shape to contend for a Wild Card spot and be buyers at the deadline.
While the team has an opportunity to make a playoff run, they also have to be careful about giving up too much talent to upgrade their roster. The strength of the D-backs farm system is in the outfield and starting pitching, much of which is already here or is close to being ready for the big leagues. Those players will be their best trade chips towards upgrading the roster.
Looking at the current roster, there is enough talent to make a run. Four players have a strong case to represent them in the All-Star Game between Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Corbin Carroll, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The two biggest holes come in the back half of the rotation and a lack of reliable arms in the bullpen.
When it comes to the rotation, a solid No. 3 starter would take a lot of pressure off of Davies, Henry, and Nelson. Davies is a quintessential bottom of the rotation starter, a guy whose run prevention numbers and length are close to the league average. That would settle him more into the No. 4 spot and allow the team to choose between Henry and Nelson for the final spot. Based on recent developments, Henry makes the most sense for the fifth starter.
In the bullpen, the team's closer by committee setup has been effective. The team spent $16 million on the trio of Scott McGough, Andrew Chafin, and Miguel Castro in the off-season. It has been money well spent, as they've combined for a 3.35 ERA, and have held the lead in 41 of 48 potential save situations (15 saves, 26 holds).
If the D-backs can add another late-inning option or a bonafide closer, that should allow Lovullo to use his bullpen as he sees fit. It can be difficult to land a bonafide closer in the trade market, as every contender is looking for that type of arm to add to their bullpen. Based on the current configuration of the bullpen, McGough makes the most sense if the team wanted to go with a traditional closer. For the time being, the team will still let matchups dictate who pitches in which inning.
If this team can make a couple key upgrades to shore up the roster, they should have a great opportunity to not only compete for a playoff spot but also break a five-year drought. Should Arizona make the postseason, it would be only the third time since 1969 a team made the postseason after losing two-thirds of their games just two seasons prior.
