Diamondbacks Rotation Options for NLCS

Lack of a 4th starter complicates Diamondbacks decision making

The Diamondbacks were in a very favorable position in the National League Division Series against the Dodgers. Due to the extra scheduled off days it allowed them to lineup Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly so that if the series had gone five games those two pitchers would have started four of the five games. As it turned out they swept the Dodgers in three games and each of them along with Brandon Pfaadt started one game each. 

They will not have that luxury in the National League Championship Series against the Phillies. The best of seven series begins on Monday, October 16th. There are just two off days, and the teams will play seven games in nine days if it goes that far. Now that the celebrations are over, Torey Lovullo has certainly been huddling with Pitching Coach Brent Strom and the front office to figure out their pitching rotation for the series. 

* Games 5,6,&7 if Necessary. ** If the ALCS is complete by Mon., Oct. 23rd, then NLCS Game 6 will move to 5:07 p.m / Jack Sommers

The Diamondbacks do not really have a fourth starter. Down the stretch Torey Lovullo used "Bullpen Games" liberally to fill the gaps. Ryne Nelson was in the rotation much of the season, but struggled with consistency and was eventually optioned out to Triple-A Reno. When he returned he made three more starts, one good and two poor before being moved to the bullpen. On September 26th he had a successful outing as the "bulk" pitcher, going  4.2 innings on September 26th.  He made a one inning appearance against Houston on the final day of the regular season.  In 29 games, 27 starts, Nelson went 8-8 with a 5.07 ERA in 144 innings. 

Since the end of the regular season Nelson has faced just four batters against Milwaukee in the Wild Card series on October 3rd.  Three of those batters reached by base hit. Nelson is likely to be on the NLCS roster, and while he's been used sparingly so far, will certainly be called upon to pitch in this series against the Phillies, but it may not be as a "starter"

It's looking more and more like game four will be a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks. The problem they face however is that with Pfaadt the most likely game three starter, it could result in a very taxing workload for the bullpen in the middle of the series.  Torey Lovullo has been aggressive in pulling starters early and going to his pen so far in the playoffs. But if he has to do that in back to back games it presents obvious challenges.  Here are four options that he might have for setting up his rotation. 

D-backs Rotation Options for NLCS / Jack Sommers

The most likely scenario is Option A. While Kelly was ahead of Gallen in the post season rotation, Gallen can start the series on Monday, October  16th with 6 days rest in between starts as his last outing was Monday October 9th. Option B has Kelly going in game one. The main reason Lovullo might consider that option is to avoid Kelly going too long between starts and getting rusty. Kelly last pitched on October 7th, so if he has to wait until October 17th that would be nine days in between starts for the D-backs number two starter. 

If going with either option A or B, the issue highlighted in yellow, and discussed above is games, 3 & 4. That is where you're going to need to have the bullpen get the majority of the outs.  It also should be noted that in both those scenarios Pfaadt is your game 7 starter. 

One out of the box solution to the above issues could be Option C in the chart above. In that scenario the team starts Pfaadt in game two, and holds Kelly for Game three.  That allows you to break up Pfaadt and the bullpen game, putting it in between Kelly and Gallen's second start in game five. It also allows you to start Kelly in Game seven.  The downside there however is Kelly's layoff would be even longer.  Option D is essentially the same thing as option C,  except Kelly and Gallen are flipped. But the team will not go that route,  as holding back their ace starter for a game three is a move that would be roundly criticized. 

As mentioned above, the team is most likely to go with option A and try to figure out how to piece together the innings for games three and four.  But option C has it's attractions, and the team will certainly be mapping out all permutations, far beyond what I've done here. 

We might have an idea later today, as the team will have a workout at Chase Field and there will be media availability. Perhaps Lovullo will name his game one starter this afternoon. Stay tuned to Inside the Diamondbacks for all the latest updates.