Diamondbacks Run Wild in First 10 Games

The best base running team in MLB maximizes new rules

The Diamondbacks made a statement in their first 10 games of 2023. Facing the Dodgers eight times, they went 5-3, and also split a two game series against the Padres. With a 6-4 record overall they're currently tied with the Padres in first place in the NL West.  Their run differential started out quite negative, but thanks to a big weekend on offense they've largely evened that up, scoring 50 runs and allowing 53. 

While 10 games is a very small sample, just 1/16th of the season, the style of play and imprint it's already made are indelible. Simply put, the Diamondbacks are running wild.  Due to the new rules limiting pick off throws and also the larger bases, base stealing attempts are up 34% across MLB.  The success rate is up seven percentage points league wide  as well. 

Year	Games	Stolen Bases	Caught Stealing	Success Rate
2022	142	133	46	74.3%
2023	141	195	45	81.3%

But as we predicted, the Diamondbacks were poised to take advantage more than most teams. Their 17 steals leads all of MLB, and more importantly, they've been caught stealing just once. Corbin Carroll leads the team with five. But the steals have been spread around.

Baseball Reference

It's not just the stolen bases however. When the D-backs have been presented with the opportunity to take the extra base, they've done so 64% of time, according to Baseball Reference.  That's the best rate in MLB, where the average is 45%.

Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of the D-backs prowess on the bases is that it's not only about speed. To be sure, the team has some of the fastest runners in the game. Corbin Carroll (30.3 feet per second) is neck and neck with Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals (30.4 Ft/sec) for fastest man in baseball according to Statcast.  Jake McCarthy is not far behind, in 4th place in MLB spring speed. (29.7 ft/sec). But after that the next highest ranked D-back in this metric is Alek Thomas (28.5 ft/sec) at 36th. A rejuvenated Nick Ahmed (28.3 ft/sec) is ranked 45th  And two of the best baserunners on the team, Geraldo Perdomo (27.1 ft/sec) and Josh Rojas (25.6 ft/sec), are ranked just  120th and 229th respectively. 

Clearly it's not just about speed then. These players are all aggressive and have great technique on the bases. They run efficiently, taking almost perfect paths as they cut the corners.  Their baseball IQ and awareness, and ability to read balls off the bat is on display every game. They're also extremely well coached by Dave McKay, widely considered the one of if not the best base running coaches in the league. 

All of the above translates to making the most of their opportunities. So far the D-backs rank 1st in base running overall and 2nd  in the percentage of baserunners scored when there is a batter at the plate. This despite ranking just 24th in the number of base runners.

The D-backs current pace for team stolen bases is 275. It seems unlikely they'll maintain such a pace. The last team to steal that many or more in a season was the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals, who stole 314 bases. (The next year St. Louis stole 262). But 200 steals seems within reach. The only team to reach that threshold since the start of the new millennium was the New York Mets in 2007. 

Ultimately getting on base and hitting for power are still going to correlate to team run scoring success more than any other factors. But with a payroll less than half that of the top teams in their own division, the Diamondbacks have found an exciting way to maximize their scoring potential, and give themselves a chance to win when the other parts of their offense are not firing on all cylinders.