Diamondbacks Trail by Half Game in Wild Card Standings

Has the team's free fall put their playoff chances and deadline plans in doubt?

After sitting in either first place in their division or at least in a wild card spot for almost the entire season, yesterday's loss to the Cardinals has dropped the Diamondbacks to a half game back in the wild card standings. They're also 4.0 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West

Jack Sommers

As surprising as the Diamondbacks first half success was, it's equally stunning how hard they have fallen over the last month. On June 27th they had just beaten the then first place Tampa Bay Rays 8-4 behind Zac Gallen and held a 2.5 game lead over the Giants in the NL West. Their 48-32 record was the second best in the National League behind only the Braves. Since that date they are 7-16, and have allowed 5.6 runs per game while scoring just 4.1 runs/G

For the first half of the team slump the offense was the main issue as they went through a 4-9 stretch from June 28th to July 15th where they averaged just 2.8 runs per game and hit .215 with a team .628 OPS.  The pitching through most of that stretch was not bad, with a 4.15 ERA, better than their season average to that point. There were several high profile late inning bullpen meltdowns however that cost them games. 

Since July 16th the script has flipped. They're still losing, going 3-7 in their last 10, but it's the pitching that is letting them down, with a whopping 7.52 ERA. The offense has actually scored 5.8 runs per game in this stretch while batting .260 with a .821 OPS. The timeliness of those hits and runs has been lacking sometimes, and  the bullpen's late inning meltdown issues have continued. 

In short, the D-backs have been ham and egging it in a bad way for over a month, with various parts of their game taking turns failing them. In addition to alternating pitching and hitting woes, their base running and defense has been more mistake prone  than they had been earlier in the year.  It's all  added up to a team in a spiral they can't seem to find their way out of. 

As they lick their wounds during the off day today in preparation for the upcoming weekend series against the Mariners, we need to take another look at their dwindling playoff odds, which have sunk back to their lowest point since May 7th when they were  at 41.2%. Today they are at 41.3%

Despite Mike Hazen's seeming insistence yesterday that this team deserves a chance to contend for the post season, and restating his desire to buy at this deadline, the continued losing and dropping in the standings and projections can't help but soften the price he's willing to pay to upgrade the roster. Michael McDermott pointed out earlier today, that price is only going up. As trade dominoes start to fall, one wonders if the Diamondbacks will be able to make any meaningful impact to their roster this trade deadline, or be playing meaningful games in September.  Those were the two goals Mike Hazen talked about in spring training for this team. Those goals might be slipping away.