Did the Diamondbacks Outsmart the Giants this Offseason?

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jorge Soler comparisons lead to a deeper dive with some surprising revelations.

Waking up yesterday morning to see that the San Francisco Giants had signed Jorge Soler to a three year contract worth $42 million, it was only natural to compare that contract to the one signed by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. with the Diamondbacks. The flamboyant left fielder signed for the same total dollars and time frame, albeit with an opt-out after 2025.  Soler meanwhile received a $9 million signing bonus as part of the his $42 million. So there are differences in the contracts.

Moreover, there are differences in the players, and the more I thought about it, comparing these two signings head to head didn't quite make sense. Soler will mostly DH, while Gurriel will mostly play in the outfield.  And these weren't the only players signed. The D-backs recently signed a player that will mostly play DH in Joc Pederson, who will make significantly less than these two aforementioned players. And then I started thinking about Jung Hoo Lee who was signed by the Giants to a six year $113 million contract. The Giants also had to pay another $18.8 million posting fee to the Kiwoom Heroes of South Korea on top of Lee's salary.

This line of thought ultimately brought me to a full bore comparison of the two team's off seasons, including trades and pitching, which we'll get to shortly. The net result of this comparison was stunning. Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen procured players projected to produce equal value in 2024 to those the Giants Farhan Zaidi brought in, and did it for almost half the cost!  Lets dive in and take a look at how I got there. 

Position Players

D-backs & Giants position players added for 2024 / Jack Sommers

Above listed players are roster players only. Minor league signees are not included. The WAR projection is from Fangraphs Depth Charts projections.  In addition to Soler and Lee, the Giants also signed backup catcher Tom Murphy for two years with an option on the third.  On the D-backs side of the ledger besides Pederson and Gurriel we also see Eugenio Suarez who was brought in via trade from Seattle for the low cost of Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala. 

The Giants have the edge in WAR projection, 5.5 to 4.0, but in 2024 alone are spending $44 million on these players compared to just $31 million for the D-backs' trio of additions.  It should be noted that the D-backs hold options on Pederson and Suarez for 2025, with their buyouts totaling $5 million. So it's possible the D-backs could decline both options, pay the buyouts in November, and have neither player on the books for 2025.  The above chart has all the options being picked up however. 

Pitchers

Jack Sommers

The Giants signed Jordan Hicks for 4 years, $44 million with the intention of using the flamethrowing reliever as a starter.  Hicks has appeared in 218 major league games, with only eight of them coming as a starter. How much length he'll give is anybody's guess. The Giants also traded Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger to Seattle in exchange for Robbie Ray.  The former Diamondback is coming off both Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery, as he himself said that a return around the All-Star break is a best-case scenario according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Ray is still owed $73 million over the final three years of his deal, including $23 million in 2024.  

The D-backs signed a healthy Eduardo Rodriguez to a four year, $80 million contract. He is expected to slot right in with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly to give the D-backs a formidable top three in the rotation. 

Summary

The Giants committed $308 million dollars through 2029 compared to just $157 million for the D-backs, but the year one projections add up to the same seven WAR. The Giants are on the hook for long term deals on a player that has never played in MLB, a pitcher who is coming off Tommy John Surgery, and another pitcher they plan to start who has almost never started. 

Mike Hazen and his baseball operations have put on a master class in how to obtain value without over spending while the Giants have taken enormous risks spending twice as much on players, who though they have upside, carry many red flags.