Extending Zac Gallen Won't Be Easy For Diamondbacks

What could it take for the Diamondbacks to extend their ace, and what are the pros and cons from each side?

As the Diamondbacks go about their business of trying to improve their roster for the 2024 season and beyond, one area they may be considering to improve stability is contract extensions for key players. Today we take a look at a potential Zac Gallen extension, weighing the pros and cons.

Contract Status: Arb 2, Est. Salary $11M, Free Agent after 2025 season

Gallen, who will be entering his age 28 season next year,  is coming off a 3rd place finish in the 2023 NL Cy Young voting. He placed 5th in 2022. Over those two seasons he's thrown 394 regular season innings with a 3.04 ERA, ranking 8th and 9th in those categories among all MLB starters. His 9.6 Baseball Reference WAR and 27 wins each rank 4th.  By any definition he's been a top 10 starter in MLB, and arguable top five. 

With two years remaining before hitting free agency he is projected to make approximately $11M via arbitration in 2024, increasing to $15-$18M in 2025 depending on how the 2024 season goes. 

Notably, Aaron Nola just signed an extension with the Phillies covering the next seven seasons for $173M, or approximately a $25M average annual salary.  That contract will take Nola through his age 31-37 seasons. While Nola is considerably older than Gallen, it's interesting to compare these two pitchers first five seasons in the league. 

Comparing first five seasons of Zac Gallen and Aaron Nola's careers / Jack Sommers

The innings pitched difference is primarily due to the Pandemic shortened 2020 season. Nola's first five seasons concluded in 2019, while Gallen's spans 2020.  There is remarkable similarity in their Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, due to the nearly exact match in the components that make up that metric (Home runs, walks and strikeouts per nine innings). Gallen's advantage in ERA and WHIP is due mostly to the quality of the defenses behind them, as evidenced by the BABIP numbers. Philadelphia often had subpar defenses while the D-backs usually have an above-average defense. The two pitchers went about it differently as well. Nola's best pitch during that time period was his curveball, while Gallen's has been his fastball. 

It's conceivable the D-backs could offer Gallen six years and $150M, ($25M avg annual) and perhaps stretch it to 7/175 if he's truly interested in negotiating a deal. That would cover his final two arbitration years, and four or five years of free agency. Gallen would become a free agent after his age 34 season and still be young enough for another multiyear contract if healthy. 

He may choose to gamble on himself remaining healthy and effective through the end of 2025.  In that case, having just earned at least $26M over the previous two years of arbitration he would enter free agency at 30 years old, one year younger than Nola. He'd then be  in line for a potential $200M contract over seven years, and poossibly more. 

There are caveats for the D-backs beyond the standard health concerns with any pitcher.  Gallen missed time on the injured list with two separate arm injuries in 2021.  Over the second half of 2023 his home run rate and hard-hit rates soared, and his ERA went up along with that.  He had several shaky starts in the postseason, but ended on a personal high note, taking a no-hitter into the 7th inning of Game 5 of the World Series. Regular and postseason Gallen threw 244 innings in 2023, 50 more than his previous career-high of 184 in the 2022 season.

Whether or not the D-backs have engaged in extension talks with Gallen's agent Scott Boras is unknown as of this writing. As reported by Nick Piecoro of AZ Central on March 29th, 2023, those discussions had not yet taken place.  The conventional wisdom is that Boras clients don't sign extensions, but Boras refutes that notion, claiming his clients have signed more extensions than anyone. 

An interesting Mike Hazen quote from that article discusses the sensitivities of these types of negotiations. 

"..you’re taking a little risk having these conversations if it doesn’t work out. Because at the end of the day, everyone’s human. You can’t unhear what you hear. You can’t unknow what you now know the organization was willing to offer you or how many years or whatever it might be.”

Should the D-backs and Gallen engage in negotiations and don't come to a deal, that could make the final two seasons very uncomfortable for both parties. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. Diamondbacks fans would love to see their ace remain with the team, and with the prices on the current free agent market, this may be the best place for the D-backs to spend a chunk of their available funds.