How Does Ohtani Signing Impact the Diamondbacks?
The Diamondbacks and their fans are waking up to the reality this morning that the winningest team in the division for the last 11 years just added the best player on the planet to their roster for the next ten years. Unless you were completely off line the last 24 hours you know that Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Dodgers to a staggering 10 year, $700 million dollar contract.
The Dodgers have won the NL West for 10 of the last 11 years, and got into the postseason as a 106 win wild card team the only year they didn't win the division. Over that historic span they have a .613 win percentage. Their regular season dominance since 2017 is even greater, with a .641 win percentage since then, or a 104 win regular season pace. They've been to the world series three times in this span, but have won the title just once, in the Pandemic shortened 2020 season.
The reality is the Dodgers didn't need to sign Ohtani to win the division again. They came into the offseason with an estimated payroll commit of $157 million, well under the $237 million luxury tax. They were always likely to add at least two good to great starting pitchers, bolstering a rotation that was decimated by injuries last year. In addition had they lost out on Ohtani they simply would have signed the next best available DH and still have arguably the best offense in the league. Since Ohtani has reportedly deferred very large portions of his salary, the Dodgers will still have the flexibility to add a couple of starting pitchers, making them all the more formidable.
It's not all bad news however. Ohtani is unlikely to pitch in 2024 while recovering from elbow surgery. How much he'll be able to pitch in the future is in question. As of right now he is projected by Fangraphs to post a 145 OPS+ and 4.5 WAR as a full time DH. On paper that adds about 2-3 wins more than they would project had they brought in a free agent such as Jorge Soler for example. While not insignificant, that alone does not make beating them in a short series insurmountable.
As we learned last year, anything can happen in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks defeated the Dodgers three straight in the divisional series, taking the first two in Los Angeles. Yes, the Dodgers starting pitching was thin and Clayton Kershaw was not at the top of his game. The D-backs pitching contained the Dodger bats however, notably Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, and that was the real story of the series. No doubt that will be much harder to do with Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani at the top of the order. But as we have learned, you just never know what will happen in a short series.
The pathway for the Diamondbacks to get back to the postseason remains as a wild card team. It was going to be that way before this signing, and it will be that way again in 2024. The D-backs have bolstered their rotation with the signing of Eduardo Rodriguez, and plugged a hole at third base by trading for Eugenio Suarez. With a young core of players that has been battle tested in a tight wild card race and the run to the World Series, they're already a better team than they were last year. They're still looking to add a right handed outfielder or DH to fill the void created by the departure of free agents Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham. Thanks to an expanded payroll, they're well poised to do so effectively in the coming days.
There are some indirect benefits for the Diamondbacks due to the Ohtani signing as well. They'll have seven home games against the Dodgers at Chase Field (April 29th through May 1st and August 30th through September 2nd). Those will likely be close to sellouts as fans flock to see Ohtani. Dodger games usually draw well to begin with, but those seven games could easily translate to an extra 75,000-100,000 fans they wouldn't normally have. Obviously many of those tickets will be sold to Dodger fans, but the team will still reap the financial benefits of added attendance, helping support their payroll expansion.
While the payroll disparities will always remain for the foreseeable future, if the Diamondbacks continue to draft and develop well, they can continue to fill the pipeline of talent to the majors. In 2024 they will have the 29th, 31st, and 35th picks in the draft. The Dodgers meanwhile will have to forfeit their 2nd and 5th round picks in the 2024 draft. That is due to the Ohtani having rejected a qualifying offer. Should they sign another player that rejected a QO, such as Blake Snell, that would cause them to lose their 3rd round pick as well.
Make no mistake about it, the Dodgers getting Ohtani is not good news for the Diamondbacks and the rest of the NL West division. The games are played on the field, not on paper however. All the Diamondbacks need to do is get back to the postseason and give themselves another chance. They will surely be focused on exactly that.
