How Many Wins Would Make D-backs 2023 Season a Success?
Back in February, Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen defined a successful season as being in position to be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline and playing meaningful games at the end of the season. When the deadline came the team was not aggressive buyers, so to salvage the season they need to be competitive for a Wild Card spot until the very end. The Philadelphia Phillies, who earned the final Wild Card last season, had 87 wins so the number we're going to use is 85 wins.
To get to 85 wins, the D-backs need to finish the season on a 24-17 run. The way to get there is to continue to win the three game series and avoid series losses in two or four game series. That's easier said than done, as there are gaping holes in the rotation, lineup, and bullpen that each present their own obstacles towards winning. Since June 28th, the D-backs are scoring 3.7 runs per game and have a team ERA of 5.19. That's contributed to a record of 13-28 over that stretch. In order to turn things around the offense will need to score more runs and the pitching staff will need to avoid giving up runs, especially late.
The past two series have given the team hope, winning four of their last five games. The next two weeks will be the most difficult part of their remaining schedule, as they take on the Padres, Rangers, Reds, and Dodgers. This stretch will define their season, as it presents a risk where they could pile up enough losses to scuttle any potential late-season run at a Wild Card spot. In this 13-game stretch, their best chance of staying alive is to avoid series losses against the Rangers and Padres, beat the Reds, and avoid a series sweep to the red-hot Dodgers. That would be an 7-6 stretch that would put them at 68-66 on September 1st.
The September portion of the schedule does not get any easier, as they play 17 games in 17 days after a travel day on August 31st. They open up by hosting the Orioles and Rockies, which needs to be at least four wins. Then they play back-to-back four game series on the road against the Chicago Cubs, a team they're chasing in the Wild Card, and the New York Mets, a team that's rebuilding for this season. Winning one of those two series and splitting the other then puts them at 77 wins when they return home to Chase Field for a pivotal five-game home stand against two other Wild Card contenders. In that homestand, they need to finish with three wins, which would get them to 80 with nine games left in the season. Follow it up by winning four of six against the Yankees and White Sox, and they're in position to call 2023 a successful season no matter what happens in the final series of the year against the Houston Astros.
It will be a difficult path moving forward, given how badly the pitching staff has performed of late. If the D-backs are able to salvage their season to a respectable 85 wins this season, much like 2019, they're in position to make a run for a playoff spot for the 2024 season with the right set of moves.
