How Might Diamondbacks Bullpen Game Play Out?

Game 4 of the NLCS will begin with Joe Mantiply as opener. Then what ?

The Diamondbacks came into the postseason knowing if they advanced they would eventually need to go with a bullpen game. That is because as the regular season wound down a series of circumstances conspired to leave them without a fourth starter. 

Mike Hazen went into the August trade deadline talking about trying to acquire a starting pitcher, but was unable to find the right deal, balking at the cost. Tommy Henry suffered an elbow injury, Ryne Nelson's inconsistency got him demoted to Triple-A Reno, and Zach Davies performance issues ended with him being released just two days before the end of the season. 

Lack of a fourth starter was not an issue for the D-backs in the first two postseason rounds. They swept the Brewers in two games in the Wild Card series and did the same to the Dodgers in three games in the division series.  The time of reckoning has come however in this seven game championship series. They are now forced to go with a bullpen game, and Joe Mantiply has been named the "starter".  Mantiply had an up and down season, posting a 4.62 ERA in 39 innings. Plagued by injury early, he finally found his groove in mid August, posting a 1.89 ERA over his final 19 innings. He had three scoreless appearances in the post season before getting blown up by the Phillies in game two.  So how might this play out ?

First lets look at the Phillies probable lineup

Order	Batter	Bats	OPS vs. Left	OPS vs. Right
1	Kyle Schwarber	Left	.758	.849
2	Trea Turner	Right	.720	.803
3	Bryce Harper	Left	.884	.907
4	Alec Bohm	Right	.929	.701
5	Bryson Stott	Left	.730	.752
6	J.T. Realmuto	Right	.838	.733
7	Nick Castellanos	Right	.930	.731
8	Brandon Marsh	Left	.717	.862
9	Johan Rojas	Right	.788	.760

 In a perfect world for Torey Lovullo Mantiply retires the Phillies in order in the top of the first and then gives way to a right handed reliever for the second inning. If anyone gets on, it's possible Lovullo pulls Mantiply after three batters regardless. That would avoid having the lefty pitch to Alec Bohm, who has a very high OPS against left hand pitching.  If that is the case then the right hander Lovullo brings in will be a short reliever.  This could be either Miguel Castro or Luis Frias. 

If forced to go with a right handed short reliever to close out the first inning, Lovullo will likely send that pitcher back out for the second. If Mantiply gets the first three outs in order however Lovullo may consider to go to his "bulk" pitcher for the second inning. That would be one of Ryne Nelson or Slade Cecconi. Nelson has struggled so far in the post season however. He's faced 11 batters, and given up 7 hits and a walk, while recording just three outs.  Cecconi faced three batters on Tuesday and needed just 14 pitches to record three outs, thanks to a double play. 

The more likely scenario is Lovullo eschews even the idea of a "bulk" pitcher to go three or four innings.  He probably won't ask any pitcher in this game to get more than six outs, and the flow will determine the matchups. If the game is still scoreless when the top of the order rolls around again he could stick with whichever right hander is in the game. But if the Phillies are already on the board and threatening Lovullo may be forced to go with lefty Kyle Nelson earlier than he would like against the fearsome lefties at the top of the Phillies order.

Brandon Marsh could also be a key out to get.  He hits right hand pitching very well. He presents a matchup problem at the bottom of the order, as it may be difficult to get a lefty in against him with the focus on Schwarber, Harper and Stott. Beyond that, Lovullo will have to navigate the middle innings as best he can and hope he can grab a lead and turn it over to his high leverage bullpen relievers over the final three innings, bridging to closer Paul Sewald. They all worked last night in game three, but all should be available for tonight's game if needed. 

Whatever direction Lovullo goes you can rest assured there is a well thought out decision tree in place, well beyond what I have presented here.  It all comes down to execution of course. The best laid plans will all go for naught if the pitchers don't throw strikes and execute their pitches on the edges of the zone to keep the Phillies sluggers in the ballpark. 

There is good news for Arizona too. If they manage to steal this game and tie up the series 2-2, they'll have Zac Gallen going at home in game five.  That's a good position to be in, despite Gallen getting roughed up n Philadelphia in game one.  They'll be facing a rookie starter in Christopher Sanchez, who hasn't started a game since September 24th, and may be rusty.  He's pretty good though, (3.44 ERA, 96 K's and 16 walks in 99 innings) but the Phillies just haven't had to use him.