It's Merrill Kelly's Turn to be the Stopper

The Diamondbacks most effective starter in second half of 2023 needs to step up big against the Phillies

Merrill Kelly sat at the podium prior to the Diamondbacks game one loss in the NLCS to the Phillies, discussing what it's like to pitch in front of loud and rowdy crowds. Harkening back to his days pitching in Korea in the KBO championship series, he talked about half the stadium crowds singing in unison throughout the entire at bat for each player in the lineup. Then in the World Baseball Classic he experienced another level of crazy and loud. 

 "Going into the WBC game, yeah, I think that -- I haven't obviously heard this place on the field, but I would be very surprised if it trumped that Venezuela game down in Miami. When Trea [Turner] hit that grand slam, I don' think I've ever experienced -- at least baseball-wise, I don't think I've ever experienced an atmosphere like that so I hope that this isn't louder than that."

While it's impossible to objectively compare decibel levels, or atmosphere for that matter, there is little doubt that playing in front of this version of Philadelphia crowds at Citizens Bank Park in the postseason presents it's challenges. Especially if they get off to an early lead like they did against Zac Gallen last night, ambushing him with first pitch swings resulting in booming homers in the first inning.  Kelly insists he is up for the challenge and will be energized. "Postseason adrenaline is a hell of a drug.", he said. 

If the Diamondbacks are going to have a reasonable chance to win this series, it's going to have to be with Kelly playing the stopper and standing up to the onslaught early in the game to allow his offense to get untracked against Aaron Nola somehow. Tonight's game is not an elimination game, and no matter what happens, the Diamondbacks will still have a chance in the series. But a simple mathematical fact is that in a seven game series when you don't have the home field advantage, you have to win at least one game on the road to win the series. It's incumbent upon Kelly to give his team the chance to do that now, rather than later. 

In the first half of the season it was usually Gallen who was counted on to stop a losing streaking or produce a win after a loss. But since coming back from a blood clot that kept him out a month, Kelly has actually performed much better than Gallen, posting an ERA a full run lower than the staff ace, 3.13 vs. 4.13. Here are their comparative pitching lines since July 25th, and including the post season.

Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen pitching lines since July 25th, including post season / Jack Sommers

The team record in Kelly's starts over this span is just 7-8, due to poor run support. They scored just 38 runs over Kelly's final 14 regular season starts (2.7 R/G), before exploding for 11 runs against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers bullpen in game one of NLDS.  Even with the Dodger game included Kelly has received only 3.3 runs per game of support over his last 15 starts.  By Comparison Gallen has received 64 runs of support over his 16 games in this span, or 4.0 R/G , and the team is 8-8. 

Staked to that big early lead in Los Angeles Kelly slayed his demons against the Dodgers, dominating their lineup from the outset. The Diamondbacks and their fans will be hoping that Kelly is able to step up once again, this time on the heels of a loss, and provide the type of outing that post season legends are made of.