Jake McCarthy: The overlooked prospect that became a franchise cornerstone

The once overlooked outfielder prospect has developed into a potential franchise building block in 2022.

© Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Diamondbacks drafted Jake McCarthy out of the University of Virginia with the 39th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. McCarthy was a center fielder with plus-plus speed, the body type to project above-average to plus power, and a good feel to hit. 

Those tools did not show up early in his journey through the D-backs system, as McCarthy struggled with injuries and had a pretty underwhelming stat line with the organization's High-A affiliate in Visalia in 2019. He was limited to 53 games and only hit .277 with a .746 OPS, which wasn't bad but certainly not what you'd expect from a Top-40 selection out of a top Power 5 collegiate program.

In the 2020 season, McCarthy wasn't invited to train at the alternate training site. Instead he watched as higher touted prospects such as Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, and Daulton Varsho got those opportunities and had to find his own way. Two years later, McCarthy is now receiving the most opportunities and has solidified himself as a mainstay in the lineup.

Even after cracking the big leagues in 2021, McCarthy wasn't ranked high on prospect lists. Most evaluators, including myself, thought of McCarthy as a 4th or 5th outfielder on the D-backs roster long term. His numbers and performance between AA Amarillo, AAA Reno, and the big leagues didn't inspire any confidence that he would develop into an everyday big leaguer.

In 2022, McCarthy made changes to his batting mechanics and approach. His stance is much more upright and he's ditched a big leg kick to simplify his mechanics. McCarthy said his goal was not to change too much about his swing and letting the game dictate what he needs to do. He felt needed to put the ball in play more often, which resulted in a calmer stance and a more conservative swing.

Those changes have paid dividends, as McCarthy's triple slash of .300/.362/.474 in 281 plate appearances leads all D-backs hitters this season. He's been regularly featured in the lineup in the second half, hitting .333/.398/.500 since the All-Star break in 47 games. His strikeout rate has plummeted from 32.9% last season to just 20.6% in 2022. It also has helped him to not only compete against left-handers but perform well, hitting for a .314 average and a .885 OPS in 78 PA against southpaws.

When facing lefties, McCarthy believes he's done a good job of handling them and there isn't much of a difference in his approach facing a righty or lefty. He takes pride in being able to defy the stereotype that a left-on-left matchup is harder. He just tries to have a good at-bat no matter who is on the mound. That approach was on full display last night against Clayton Kershaw, one of the best lefties of all time. In his first plate appearance, McCarthy worked a walk after falling behind 1-2. The second time up, he hit a bullet to center field, which Statcast classified as a barrel. In his final at-bat, he hooked a ball in the right field corner that required a fantastic sliding catch from 5-time Gold Glove winner Mookie Betts to prevent extra bases. 

Despite making the team's Opening Day roster, opportunities were difficult to come by. McCarthy was deployed as the team's 5th outfielder, mostly getting starts against left-handers when the team needed to sit Pavin Smith. Even as starts became sporadic, McCarthy tried to make the most of the opportunities and at-bats he got. Since there wasn't a way to get McCarthy the consistent reps he needed to develop at the big league level, the team optioned him to AAA Reno twice during the season to get him those at-bats. 

On July 11th, the Diamondbacks called up McCarthy for his third stint in the big leagues this year. He's made the most of this opportunity, hitting .339 with a .915 OPS, with a strikeout rate of only 14.7%, and has forced his way into the lineup. Since the start of the Rockies series last weekend, McCarthy has settled into the third spot in the order in his last six starts. 

McCarthy hasn't quite settled into a particular position in the outfield, with the organization giving opportunities to Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, and  Corbin Carroll ahead of him. Once a center fielder, 45 of his 49 starts in the outfield this season have been in the corners. When playing at the two corners, McCarthy has noted the "ball seems to tail a certain way and maybe not hit as true as in center". He credits the experience he got playing all three outfield spots in college and the minor leagues, saying that it doesn't make much of a difference.

Since McCarthy is not only an outfielder but a gifted base stealer, he's spent a lot of hours working with Dave McKay on defense and baserunning. He's learned much from McKay, including when to be aggressive on the basepaths and gotten feedback for his defense. McCarthy has been successful on 17 of 18 stolen base attempts this season and has been burning up the basepaths. Baseball Reference credits him with +4 runs above average in baserunning and Fangraphs +5.5 runs. 

With the rule changes set to go in effect, limiting the number of pickoff throws and increasing the size of the bases, McCarthy could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He has experience playing with bigger bases with Reno last season. Since base stealing is a huge facet of his game, he believes it will help. 

While Carroll, Thomas, and Varsho have created all the excitement in the outfield, the player who didn't generate any buzz may end up being the best of the bunch. In the last two months, McCarthy has not only shown that he is a capable big league outfielder but one the D-backs can build around.