Looking Ahead to Diamondbacks 2025 Payroll Flexibility

With a number of backloaded and escalating contracts on the books, we take a peek at how that impacts the team beyond 2024 into 2025

The Diamondbacks baseball operations group has had a busy offseason so far. With the backing of ownership pledges to increase payroll, they've signed two free agents, Eduardo Rodriguez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., committing to $122 million in the process. They have also traded for Eugenio Suarez, who will make $11.3 million in 2024, with a team option for $15 million for 2025. 

The team has indicated they are not yet done this offseason, as they strongly desire to add one more impact hitter, either to be a full time DH or perhaps play in the field part time and DH part time. In order to assess what the team may or may not be able to do we need to take a look beyond 2024 into 2025, especially if backloading contracts is being considered. 

According to our calculations at Inside the Diamondbacks, the 2024 payroll budget is already up to $137 million. There has been speculation the club could go as high as $145-150 million in 2024.  For 2025, the team is already committed to at least $109 million, and if options are picked up it could be as much as $128 million.  

Jack Sommers

Notes on above table:

• Projected Opening Day 26-man roster for 2024 can be seen below

• Projected Opening Day roster for 2025 includes 20 named players, and six roster spots to be filled by at least a league minimum salary player. 

• "Replacements" is the prorated MLB minimum for players that come up from the minors to replace an injured player or a player that has been demoted to the minors. 

• 40-man roster players earn a salary below the MLB minimum but above the minor league minimum that counts towards the MLB payroll

• Pre Arb bonus pool is the same for every MLB team, evenly dividing $50 million

• Madison Bumgarner is still on the books for 2024

• There are three players with options for 2025, Merrill Kelly, Scott McGough and Eugenio Suarez. The 2025 summary is therefore shown with and without those options being picked up. Kelly's $7 million club option seems like a no-brainer for the team to exercise, so he's projected to be in the Opening Day 2025 rotation.

2024 Detailed Roster and Payroll

Below you can see the player breakout as of today. This is not likely to be the actual Opening Day roster, but it's probably pretty close.  Obviously another signing or two, or a trade can alter this significantly, driving the number up closer to $150 million. At the same time there might be some differences in which pre arbitration, league minimum players make the roster.  It should also be noted that I do not include the buyouts paid at the end of 2023 for Mark Melancon and Zach Davies in the 2024 payroll budget, as that money has already been paid.  While those dollars count against the competitive balance tax calculation, the D-backs are nowhere close to having to pay the penalty.  What's not clear is if the buyouts paid out in 2023 count against the money Mike Hazen has to spend in 2024 or not. 

D-backs 2024 Payroll Budget Snapshot as of January 6th / Jack Sommers

D-backs 2025 free agents / Jack Sommers

2025 Detailed Roster and Payroll 

Below is the 2025 payroll budget.  The most notable free agents after 2024 that need to be replaced are Christian Walker and Paul Sewald. That needs to be kept in mind when evaluating the below table. Rodriguez and Gurriel Jr. are both making significantly more in 2025, having agreed to back load their contracts. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll's contracts escalate as well.  And there are a number of players due to make significantly more in arbitration, most notably Zac Gallen.  Bumgarner is no longer on the books, although there is the question of his deferred salary. During 2021-2023 he deferred $5 million each season. That money should have already been set aside in a separate account, according to owner Ken Kendrick. Whether it still counts against the budget ownership gives Mike Hazen for 2025 and beyond or if it already was accounted for in previous years is unknown. 

D-backs 2025 Roster and Payroll commitments / Jack Sommers

If the D-backs were to extend Christian Walker to a multiyear deal it can be assumed that he would earn at least $12-14 million at a bare minimum. They could always make him him qualifying offer, which would be a one year deal for approximately $20 million.  If they sign a player such J.D. Martinez or Jorge Soler to a multi year deal and attempt to backload that contract, they could very quickly run up against payroll limits in 2025 before they've replaced relievers Sewald, Miguel Castro, and  Scott McGough should should they not pick up his option. 

In a perfect world, the Diamondbacks prospect pipeline churns out players capable of replacing at least some of these free agents as early as 2025.  Maybe Ivan Melendez will be able to take over first base as early as spring of 2025. Maybe some of the many young pitchers both in the majors and upper minors will be ready to step into key roles in the bullpen. One of the reasons we spend so much time writing about and reviewing prospects at this website is because even with an increased budget, the D-backs are never going to be able to simply spend their way into competitiveness. 

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