Seven Players Who Best Deserve To Be Hall Of Famers
The 2024 Hall of Fame ballot was officially released to the public yesterday. Voters can choose up to 10 players who they think is worthy of Major League Baseball's biggest honor, although typically only a handful of players get in. For this year's class of players, I believe there are four players who are most deserving of this honor.
Adrían Beltré has the strongest case of all players on the ballot, ranking fifth in Wins Above Average (52.6) and third in Wins Above Replacement (93.5). His +216 fielding runs ranks second all-time at the position, behind the late Brooks Robinson, and his +257 batting runs is 10th. Throwing in traditional numbers, Beltré had 3166 hits, 477 home runs, and 1707 RBI. No matter how you slice it, he is a Top 5 player All-Time at third base.
Joe Mauer is a bit more complicated as WAR metrics often fail to capture the true value of a catcher's defense. However at his prime, he was arguably the best player in the game as an elite hitter playing the most difficult position on the field. Looking at his numbers from his peak of 2005-2013, he was a .323 hitter with 99 home runs and a 135 OPS+. While not a big home run threat, Mauer was a tough batter to get out with a 162-game average of 86 walks and 78 strikeouts. Encapsulating all that value, his 25.9 WAA and 43.2 WAR rank seventh and 10th in that stretch. His career was derailed by injuries, which forced him off the catcher position for good in 2014. In his final five seasons, he was essentially a league average player as a first baseman/designated hitter. However I think the peak is strong enough that he should be in the Hall.
Todd Helton often gets overlooked due to the fact he plays for the Rockies, but what shouldn't be overlooked is the physical and mental toll of playing in high elevation for all those years. At his peak, 1999-2004, he was one of the premier first baseman in baseball due to his impact bat and Gold Glove level defense. His 2000 season was particularly special, winning a batting title with a .372 average and leading the National League in doubles, RBI, and the triple slash stats. Injuries affected his home run power from 2005 onward, hitting no more than 20 home runs in that stretch, but Helton found a way to play through them and continue to produce.
Chase Utley was a do-it-all second baseman who was a very good hitter, defender, and baserunner, but doesn't have the hardware to show for it. Despite having the second best WAA (40.9) and WAR (59.7) between 2005-2014, behind peak Albert Pujols, he didn't win a Gold Glove or finish higher than seventh in the MVP race in any year. During that peak, he contended with the likes of Brandon Phillips and Orlando Hudson in the National League. While his six All-Star selections, four Silver Sluggers, and World Series championship in 2008 alone are worthy of Hall of Fame consideration, but he had a much better career than the accolades suggest. Utley is 7th amongst second baseman in WAA and 11th in WAR, minimum of 80% of games played at the position.
After those four, there were some tough decisions. I ultimately chose to vote yes for Carlos Beltrán, Alex Rodríguez, and Manny Ramírez on my pretend ballot. While each player has tarnished their reputation due to their involvement in their respective scandals, their level of play and impact on the history of the game is worthy enough of a Hall of Fame selection. Rodríguez and Ramírez are both linked to the Biogenesis scandal, with the latter suspended in 2009 on a positive PED test. Beltrán will always be linked to the Astros sign stealing scandal, although I think his 34.4 WAA hurts his case more than that. Beltrán's eight-year peak of 30.0 WAA and 47.0 WAR from 2001-2008 both rank fourth in baseball over that stretch behind Pujols, Rodríguez, and Barry Bonds. While they may be enshrined in the Hall of Fame, what they did should never be forgotten.
Billy Wagner, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buerhle, and Andruw Jones fall short of the threshold for me. Wagner's poor postseason track record (10.03 ERA, -11.2% cWPA) hurts his case, especially considering he was one of the most dominant one-inning closers in the regular season. Pettitte and Buerhle are similar pitchers when comparing regular season track record, with the former having a much more illustrious postseason career pitching for the Yankees and Astros. In fact both pitchers squared off in Game 2 of the 2005 World Series. However with both pitchers I don't think their peak is strong enough to get over the hump. Jones' case is hurt by the fact his career basically derailed in his 30s after an impressive first 10 years.
