Should the Diamondbacks Still be Trade Deadline Buyers?

July Slump has thrown the team into disarray on the field. Is it the same in the front office?

Just last Wednesday Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen stood  with his back against a white brick wall to address the media. He stated clearly that it was still his intention to be a buyer at the trade deadline.  Pitching was the priority, but he also wanted to bring in a right handed bat. The only thing that seemed to be in question was just how aggressive he would be. 

In the 100 hours since that time the team dropped three more out of four games. Their record is now 56-50, and their run differential is -1, meaning their pythagorean, or expected record is 53-53.  They're 7-16 for the month of July. Their position in the standings is 3rd place in the NL West, 4.0 games back of the Dodgers and 2.0 games back of the Giants who they start a four game series with tonight.  As for the Wild Card they are 1.0 games out of the final playoff spot with three teams in front of them. The surging Chicago Cubs are just 2.5 games behind. 

The projected win total to make the NL Wild Card continues to be 87,  or a .538 win percentage. The Diamondbacks would need to go 31-25 the rest of the way to achieve that cut line just to squeak into the final spot. Making the task all that harder is  the fact that the team has been getting hit with injuries over the last month after enjoying relatively good health most of the season. Merrill Kelly missed a month with a blood clot. Drey Jameson is likely out for the year with a UCL sprain. Zach Davies is on the IL with back injury.  Gabriel Moreno has a shoulder strain and there is no timetable yet for his return. And Tommy Henry just went on the IL with elbow inflammation. 

The D-backs chances of making the post season are now well under 50% and the teams around them have been making moves to improve while as of this writing Mike Hazen has not yet pulled the trigger on a trade. The reasons for that could be many. Ultimately it comes down to whether or not you have the players that other teams want to bring in your targeted players. If other teams are holding out for Jordan Lawlar, it's extremely likely that Hazen views him as on the untouchable list. Which other players might be on that list is not certain. Perhaps Brandon Pfaadt and Druw Jones are on that list as well.  These are the top three rated D-backs prospects by most of the prospect ranking industry. 

The fact that no trade has transpired may be an indication that other teams are simply not interested in D-backs prospects outside of those top three. Their internal boards may look a lot different than Baseball America's or MLB Pipeline's.  The lack of movement to this point could also be an indication that the D-backs are backing away from buyer mode and may stand pat. It's unlikely they flip to seller, and truth be told, they told have much in the way of rental players to sell anyway.  But in these circumstances does it make sense for them to be strong buyers?

That window may already be closed. Certainly if the opportunity presented itself the team may elect to trade for a controllable player or two that can help them beyond 2023. Or they may make a couple of lesser moves to shore up the back of the rotation and a bullpen arm or two. But at this point any aggressive moves that would cost high level prospects just to bring in a rental starter or reliever, no matter how good, would seem to be ill advised. 

The trade deadline is tomorrow at 6 P.M. EST, 3:00 P.M. Arizona time. Based on past track record, it's still not possible to rule out a big move by Mike Hazen. He's done it before, taking right up to the last minutes before the deadline to make his move. But as upper tier talents fly off the trade board at the same time his team sinks in the standings, don't be shocked if he pushes away from the table.