Simplifying the Crazy NL Wild Card Race

What needs to happen for the Diamondbacks to get in the playoffs?

The Diamondbacks are playing meaningful games in September. This was the stated goal from GM Mike Hazen at the start of the season.  He and manager Torey Lovullo and the players and coaching staff have put the team in the position to make the playoffs. It's time now to throw the playoff odds out the window however. They don't mean anything from this point forward. Currently there are four teams with 71 losses. The D-backs and Reds are 76-71 and have 15 games left to play. The Giants and Marlins are 75-71 and have 16 games left to play. 

Due to the fact the Diamondbacks do not hold the head to head tie breaker with any of these three teams, they cannot be in a tie at the end of the season and still get in.  They went 3-4 against the Reds, 2-4 against the Marlins, and are 5-6 against the Giants with two more games to play next week.  The D-backs would need to sweep the two games from the Giants to hold the tie breaker. Until that happens, we are looking at this through the lens of not having the advantage. Therefore Arizona need one more win and one fewer loss than all of these teams. A tie won't cut it.  The simplest way to view the remaining schedule therefore is via the following statement: 

The Diamondbacks must lose one fewer game from here on out than all three of the Reds, Giants & Marlins in order to make the post season. 

Here is what that looks like in chart form. The first example is based on any of the other three teams getting to 86-76. The D-backs would then need to go 11-4 over their final 15 games to get to 87 wins. 

The D-backs road to the playoffs, 87 wins / Jack Sommers

A slightly less difficult path would be if all of the other three teams lose at least 6 of their remaining games. Then the D-backs  then need to go 10-5 to get to 86 wins. 

The D-backs road to the playoffs, 86 wins / Jack Sommers

The best case scenario is probably only needing 85 wins to get in. Anything lower than that and you're depending on all three of the other teams to play .500 or worse baseball the rest of the way. While that's certainly a non zero possibility, you have to account for at least one of the teams to play above .500 from here out. 

Jack Sommers

Of course the opposite of that last table is true as well. If the Reds rip off an 11-4 stretch, or the Giants or Marlins go 12-4, then the D-backs have the almost impossible task of going 12-3. 

Remaining  games for each team

D-backs 8 Home, 7 Away: 1 @Mets, 3 Vs. Cubs, 2 Vs. Giants, 3 @Yankees, 3 @White Sox,  3 Vs. Astros, 

Reds: 6 Home, 9 Away: 1 @Tigers, 3 @Mets, 3 Vs. Twins, 3 Vs. Pirates, 2 @Guardians, 3 @Cardinals

Giants 6 Home, 10 Away: 4 @Rockies, 2 @ D-backs, 4@ Dodgers, 3 Vs. Padres, 3 Vs. Dodgers

Marlins: 9 Home, 7 Away: 1 @Brewers, 3 Vs. Braves, 3 Vs. Mets, 3 Vs. Brewers, 3 @Mets, 3 @Pirates

Baseball reference rates the Reds schedule as the easiest, despite more games being away. On paper the Giants and Marlins have the toughest schedules, but if the Braves and Dodgers are locked into their playoff seeding, they may not be running out their toughest lineups.  The D-backs schedule is rated neutral, neither particularly difficult or easy.  But their challenge is criss crossing timezone with two trips to New York and Chicago within a two week period. 

Finally, here is how each of these teams has been doing lately, showing current streak, last 10, 20 and 30 games. Table courtesy of Baseball Reference