The Diamondbacks Are Better Than You Think

Looking closely at current roster playing time projections, WAR, and payroll reveals a nice surprise

So as not to bury the lead, let's start off with the results. Often times very young teams arrive a year earlier than expected. Based on early analysis of the projections for the current 40-man roster (plus a handful of non roster players expected to get limited playing time), the Diamondbacks appear to be just such a team. As of right now, they project to be an 84 Win team with a payroll just under $100 million dollars

Diamondbacks WAR and Salary Projections / Jack Sommers

Let me emphasize, this result shocked me. All I did was take the Steamer player projections and pro rate them to my own playing time projections. I do that because I feel like I have a tighter finger on the pulse of this organization than the people doing the projections for the entire league. These WAR totals then are not the result of a biased fanboy, but are simply based on an independent third party's projections with some fine tuning for playing time. 

Note that a replacement level team is estimated to have a .294 win percentage. That comes out to 47.6 wins. To get the win total you simply add the pitcher and hitter WAR to the replacement wins. 

This 84 win projection, $99 million payroll is just a snapshot of where they are right now. Of course as the team makes further trades and signings during the off season, this will change. Just how much it changes depends on the moves the team makes. But now that tender decisions have been made we have a measure of clarity to review the rest of the off season. 

Based on the above, I believe ownership should stretch the payroll as much as they possibly can and give Mike Hazen at least $20 million more to work with, bringing payroll back up to at least $120 million. They are close enough to justify this. As of this moment the Dodgers appear more vulnerable than usual. Of course they will plug holes left by departing free agents, but as of right now they do not project to be as strong in 2023 as they were in 2022. That, combined with a more balanced schedule where the D-backs will be playing more games outside the NL West gives Arizona a real shot to secure a wild card as early as 2023, and even an outside chance to steal the division, IF ownership is bold right now. 

Pitching

Diamondbacks Pitching WAR and Payroll Projection

Note the WAR chosen is RA-9 WAR, which uses runs against per nine innings as the starting point. That includes unearned runs. It is league and park adjusted. RA-9 WAR as published on Fangraphs will typically be closer to Baseball-Reference's pitching WAR than Fangraphs own FIP based WAR. 

These projections for Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen appear somewhat modest. But they are what they are. Based on where I believe things are headed with Madison Bumgarner, which I wrote about yesterday, I projected him to get only 15 starts for the D-backs in 2023, plus some additional reliever innings. I do not believe he will pitch a full season in Arizona. 

You can also see this projection has three rookies, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson each getting 22 starts and throwing 120 innings with a handful of relief appearances thrown in. Left hander Tommy Henry gets eight starts in this projection, but also works out of the bullpen. Then there are 10 starts spread between Tyler Gilbert,  Slade Cecconi and Blake Walston. The latter two are not on the 40-man roster but are projected to get some MLB innings. 

Mike Hazen said on October 6th that in addition to bullpen upgrades, the team would be looking for more starting pitching. If they are able to find more left handed starting pitching that would give them more balance in the rotation. 

Position Players

Diamondbacks position players WAR and Salary projections

That 25 position player WAR is a big number. There are no fewer than eight players that project to be above average major leaguers. Christian Walker had a five war season, and is projected to have that cut in half. With young players, you always have a good chance for a breakout that projections systems can't pick up, as they're based on past history. That was the case with Daulton Varsho last year, who also put up five WAR, but is projected for just 3.2 WAR here. Will Corbin Carroll break out to off set that regression? Will Ketel Marte regain previous form? As you can clearly see, these are not pie in the sky fanboy projections. The are conservative, heavily regressed projections. 

We have to deal with the elephant in the room however. There has been a lot of hand wringing over the number of left hand hitting outfielders, and the need for more balance. Mike Hazen attempted to address that imbalance by trading for Kyle Lewis to platoon at DH and Left Field. It may seem counter intuitive, but based on the current roster composition, there is plenty of playing time to go around even if they do not trade one of the primary four left handed outfielders. (Daulton Varsho, Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, and Alek Thomas). There would not be much playing time for either Dominic Fletcher or Dominic Canzone unless the outfield is hit with a severe injury or two. The caveat is in order to arrive at these numbers, I have Jake McCarthy playing a lot of DH against right handed starters. 

Diamondbacks playing time projections

Of course the team may still trade an outfielder to plug other holes. But I find it very instructive to break it down this way as it shows that it can work. Mike Hazen said exactly that recently. He's not worried about getting enough at bats for everyone. I agree with him. 

Keep in mind that approximately 30% of games started are by left handers and 70% by right handers. The actual number of at bats is slightly different.  27% of PA come against LHP and 73% of PA come against RHP, as managers matchup in the bullpen. 

I estimate PA per game started slightly difference based on whether the hitter is likely to hit at the top, middle, or bottom of the order. I also make a subjective call if I believe a hitter is more likely to be pinch hit for. The pinch hit PA estimates are self explanatory. Regarding the Def Sub column, when a player is subbed into the game as a defensive replacement I give him 0.5 PA for each sub appearance. This is based on past history. 

I do not expect Jose Herrera and Dominic Miroglio to get 66 starts at catcher between them, but these are the guys in the organization right now. Herrera is on the 40 man roster, and Miroglio, despite not being on the roster, is next man up based on current depth chart. I definitely expect changes here as I wrote about on Friday. 

Summary

One has to assume the baseball operations group has presented something similar to the above to ownership. Hazen recently said that in his meeting with ownership he was told he would have some room to work the payroll. Just how much is unclear, but parsing his words, it did not sound like it would be a lot. I believe the organization could reap the immediate benefit of using cash to invest in free agent upgrades, and should avoid trading young player and prospect capital to improve the team and plug holes. The iron is hotter than you think, and the time to strike is now.