Three Non-Tendered Players Who Best Fit The Diamondbacks

These three players, who were recently non-tendered, could be a solid pickup for the Diamondbacks on the cheap.

Yesterday was the deadline to tender controllable players a contract for the 2024 season. 67 players were not tendered a contract, allowing them to reach free agency and sign with other teams. With these players now added to the free agent market, here are some players who present a good fit with the Diamondbacks for next season.

Nick Senzel

The Reds took Senzel with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 Draft and he never was able to fully realize that talent. His role slowly lessened over the years, becoming more of a part-time utility player in the 2023 season. Projected to earn $3 million in his third trip through arbitration after earning Super Two status after the 2021 season, the Reds decided to non-tender him instead. As a right-handed bat with a career triple slash of .287/.334/.460 against left-handed pitching, he offers the D-backs an opportunity to get a potential fourth outfielder on the cheap who starts or pinch hits against left-handed pitching.

When holding the platoon advantage, Senzel had an average exit velocity of 89.3 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 36.8%. The major league averages for a right-handed batter facing a left-handed pitcher are 88.9 MPH and 40.0% respectively. The significantly lower hard-hit rate than the league average is concerning, as he puts more balls in play than the typical hitter in that situation does. Against right-handers his performance is much worse, but will not have to deal with that potential situation with Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas  locks to start against righties.

Should the D-backs sign Senzel it makes sense to have him stay in the outfield than the infield. In his career, he's played over 2200 innings in the outfield compared to 471 on the infield. Most of that experience comes in center field, and he struggled defensively when moved to a corner. Players under Dave McKay's tutelage have improved defensively, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. a prime example of that last year. Senzel still ranks in the 75th percentile for Sprint Speed and had gotten above-average jumps in years past. 

Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull was looking like one of the best young starters for the Tigers, but his career has been sidetracked with injuries. After 11 dazzling starts to open the 2021 season, which included a no-hitter, he would be out through the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. After struggling in seven starts, Turnbull was placed on the injured list with a neck issue in May and did not return to a major league mound. When the Tigers activated him from the IL in August, he was immediately optioned to Triple-A Toledo. Instead of tendering a contract, which projected to be $2.4 million in his third year of arbitration, Detroit elected to cut him loose.

The question for Arizona will be how much are they willing to gamble on an arm that was great three seasons ago. Since returning from surgery, his 2023 velocity was a full tick down from 2021 levels. As a result he'll need to develop his secondary stuff more, relying less on his fastball and more on his slider and changeup to get outs. Fortunately in Arizona, he'd have a great mentor for that in Merrill Kelly.

Brandon Hughes

Hughes was a surprising non-tender for the Cubs just one year after putting up an impressive 3.12 ERA and a 28% strikeout rate. After allowing 11 runs in 13 2/3 innings, he underwent a debridement procedure on his left knee June 28th. However the swing-and-miss ability was still there, with a strikeout rate of 27% and the slider generating a whiff rate of 53%. That alone should make him an ideal target for the D-backs to try to shore up their left-handed relief options. 

Hughes is expected to make a full recovery by spring. In his career he's been tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .227/.309/.291 triple slash, but right-handed hitters have had more success against him. 12 of the 13 home runs he's allowed in his two seasons have been to right hand bats. Unlike most of the left-handed relievers on the D-backs roster, Hughes has solid experience in high leverage situations. In that split for his career, he's holding opponents to a .238 average and .690 OPS. A healthy Hughes could be the top left-handed option out of the bullpen while allowing Andrew Saalfrank to settle into a less stressful role.