Was Zac Gallen Snubbed in the Cy Young Award Voting?

The Diamondbacks ace did not finish among the top three finalists in the BBWAA vote. Was that fair?

© Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Zac Gallen had a terrific season for the Diamondbacks in 2022. He set career bests in innings pitched, wins, ERA, and just about every major pitching category across the board. His season was punctuated by a franchise record 44 1/3 innings scoreless streak, the details of which you can read about here. He won the NL pitcher of the month award for August. But that wasn't enough to propel him to the top three in the Cy Young Award voting by the BBWAA. The top three finalists are Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, and Julio Urias.  Lets take a deep dive together to see if this was indeed a snub. 

Note: Most statistics used in this article came from Baseball-Reference and some were sourced from Fangraphs. 

ERA & ERA+

Leading  NL Cy Young contenders ranked by ERA+ / Baseball Reference

Julio Urias has the most wins and lowest ERA and highest park adjusted ERA+ among leading Cy Young candidates. But with 228.2 innings Sandy Alcantara has almost 60 more IP than Urias and is right behind Urias in ERA and ERA+. Max Fried and Zac Gallen are just behind Alcantara in ERA/ERA+ but clearly a tier below the top two in this category. A notable advantage for Gallen in the above chart is WHIP, which he led by a large margin. 

Note: ERA+ is league and park adjusted ERA, scaled so 100 = average. The higher the number the greater the percent above average the pitcher's earned run average was. 

Run Support

Run Support / Baseball Reference

RS/IP is run support per 27 outs while the pitcher is still in the game. Urias had the highest run support while still in the game of any leading contender, while Alcantara had the lowest. This should factor strongly when looking at W-L records. 

Defense Support

Defense Support / Baseball Reference

The quality of the defense behind a pitcher impacts runs allowed. Baseball Reference has a defense rating for each team. The higher the positive number, the more the defense helped the pitcher. This is measured in runs. Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola pitched in front of the worst defenses, while Urias and Zac Gallen pitched in front of the best. 

Batting Against

Batting Against / Baseball Reference

Batting Against: This area of the analysis, coupled with the WHIP component in the first table above, are Gallen's strongest areas. Due in part to the quality of the defense behind them, Urias and Gallen have the lowest BABIP among these contenders while Nola and Rodon have the highest. Nola and Urias gave up the most homers however so their OPS against is higher. Gallen has the lowest BA/OBP/SLG and OPS across the board. It wasn’t just the defense. He was very difficult to hit and limited homers too. That combined with a career low walk rate led to Gallen leading the league in WHIP

Note: BABIP = batting average on balls in play and does not include homers

Win Probability

Baseball Reference

Alcantara had the most “high leverage” innings because he pitched deep into games and his team didn’t score a lot, so he was in close, high leverage situations more than anyone else, and he was outstanding in those situations. Fried and Gallen have the next highest WPA, but Fried was in games that mattered more in a pennant race, so his cWPA , or Championship WPA is higher than Gallen’s.

Weighted WAR Index

Utilizing Baseball Reference WAR, Fangraphs RA-9 WAR and Fangraphs FIP based WAR one can create a weighted index. Both BB REF and FG RA-9 WAR are based on Runs against (including unearned runs) per 9 innings as the starting point and then make park and league adjustments. However BB REF then makes further adjustments for the quality of the defense behind the pitcher, and the quality of opponents faced. FIP based WAR is Fangraphs primary metric, but only uses walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed as the basis, with the philosophy that the pitcher can only control those things and has no control over balls in play or the defense behind him.

While many believe that FIP based WAR is the most predictive, in my view it should not be weighted equally with the actual runs allowed metrics. While the previous sections went to great lengths to provide context for pitcher performance when it comes to run support and defense support, the pitcher's primary job is to keep runs off the board. So for this particular index, I rank with a weighting of 40% RA-9 WAR, 40% baseball Reference WAR, and 20% FIP based WAR. However I also show the numbers using alternate weightings, including all three equal, as well as 50% FIP based WAR. 

SUMMARY

Based on all the data presented above, below are my personal rankings of the NL Cy Young Candidates, but I confess to some bias. I saw every one of Gallen's starts. Personal ranking aside, I think it's clear that any vote between second and fifth for Gallen could be easily justified. Verdict:  NO SNUB

Sergio Alcantara: He should be the unanimous first place vote getter. His 228.2 IP coupled with near best in league run prevention combine to make him the walkaway winner. His 6 complete games are the most in MLB since 2016, and you have to go all the way back to 2011 to find a pitcher with more. He performed in high leverage, and did so with the least run support.

Max Fried & Zac Gallen: These two pitchers are extremely close in ERA and Innings. Gallen had his incredible 44.1 scoreless innings streak, the 6th best all time, which is an amazing accomplishment. He leads MLB in WHIP and has the lowest Batting Against numbers among the leading contenders. But Gallen also pitched in front of the better defense and had more run support. Fried did his best work in the middle of a tight pennant race where every game mattered. Coin flip between the two, which may come down to the final start for each pitcher to find some separation.

Carlos Rodon: Rodon has the lowest FIP and highest K/9 rate of any pitcher in the NL. His SO/BB ratio is the 5th best in the league and he did a great job of suppressing homeruns. He controlled what he could control and was dominant. Despite having a poor defense behind him and a high BABIP against, he had second lowest OPS against. He could easily be # 2 on this list

Julio Urias: It’s not his fault he pitches in front of the best team in baseball. He throws strikes and induces weak contact. He does exactly what he has to do to put his team in a position to win. While the advanced metrics don’t rate him high enough to put him at the top, 17 wins and league best ERA can’t be ignored, and clearly weren't by the more traditional BBWAA voters. 

Aaron Nola: Honorable Mention. His 205 IP were the second most in the NL. He had the highest SO/W ratio by a large margin and the second lowest FIP in the. His defense hurt his hit rate, (BABIP) but he also gave up 19 HR, so his ERA and W-L record, and WPA (leverage) leave him just outside the top 5 in my personal ranking. But the weighted WAR index has him either second or third.