Which Players Could the D-backs Protect From the Rule 5 Draft?

Ranking players who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December and their likelihood of being protected.

The deadline to add minor league players to the 40-man roster is tomorrow. The Rule 5 Draft was designed to prevent big market teams from hoarding talent in the minor leagues. A player become eligible if he is not on any 40-man roster after three full seasons after for a player signed at Age 19 or older or four seasons for a player signed at 18 or under. 

According to MLB.com, in the major league phase of the draft a team that does not have a full 40-man roster may select an available player at the cost of $100K and add them to their 40-man roster. Should the player not make the Opening Day roster, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K after clearing waivers. 

Likely to be added

This list covers players who I expect to be added to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. 

• RHP Justin Martinez
• INF Blaze Alexander
• OF Dominic Fletcher
• OF Dominic Canzone

All four players are capable of contributing to the big leagues as soon as 2023, with all of them finishing the year with Triple-A Reno. Alexander and Martinez, the D-backs' No. 18 and No. 29 prospects, have the most potential to make an impact of this group given the team's lack of depth in the bullpen and the middle infield. Each player is coming off a solid showing in 2022, with Alexander putting up impressive numbers that includes a 136 wRC+ and Martinez in the Arizona Fall League.

Fletcher and Canzone have the misfortune of being buried by the team having so many dynamic, left-handed hitting outfielders already on the 40-man roster. Fletcher, the team's No. 14 prospect, is capable of handling all three outfield positions while Canzone, No. 17, is a bat-first player who projects to split time between left field and first base. Both players serve as valuable depth in case of injuries to the players in front of them, despite currently being blocked from seeing regular big league action. 

Under Consideration

This list covers the group of players that could be added to the 40-man roster, but could be left unprotected if they cannot open up enough spots for them.

• C Dominic Miroglio
• OF Wilderd Patiño
• RHP Mitchell Stumpo
• RHP Blake Workman
• RHP Justin Lewis
• OF Jorge Barrosa

Miroglio was previously eligible to be selected in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, but was not selected. A glove-first player at the catcher position, he has the misfortune of batting from the same side as Carson Kelly and was passed up on for a fill-in as a COVID replacement for Jose Herrera during the season. He had a solid offensive showing in Reno and could very well draw interest from organizations looking to find catcher depth.

Patiño is the D-backs No. 20 prospect and finished the season with the organization's High-A affiliate in Hillsboro. After struggling in Visalia in 2021, he was able to bounce back and put together a solid campaign to stay on the prospect ladder. It's possible that a team may be willing to buy a prospect through the Rule 5, but Patiño is too raw a player to handle the big leagues and could mightily struggle in that situation.

Stumpo and Workman are two MLB-ready relievers who possess solid, but not eyepopping, stuff. Both project to be up-and-down relievers who can provide some cheap innings while they still have options. Both have some swing and miss stuff, but each pitcher had significant warts to go with them. Stumpo struggled with walks in the first half, walking 22 in 23.2 innings through July 24th. But from July 27th until the end of the season he had just nine walks in 19.2 innings and a 1.37 ERA. Workman is an extreme fly ball pitcher, 40% in Double-A and 54.8% in Triple-A according to Fangraphs, that will give up the occasional home run.

Justin Lewis split time between Double-A and Triple-A, but didn't perform as well as Martinez, Workman, and Stumpo. He's a long 6'7" with two swing-and-miss offerings, between a 4-seamer and a changeup. While his strikeout rate wasn't particularly high, he has consistently posted swinging strike rates around 14-15% at each stop. He could be a guy who puts it all together under Brent Strom's tutelage. 

As is the case with both Fletcher and Canzone, Barrosa is also buried on the depth in the outfield. Barrosa has enough upside to potential stick in the big leagues, but the depth ahead of him could leave him unprotected as they could be carrying as many as eight outfielders on the 40-man roster. While he's not projected to hit for much power, the D-backs No. 25 prospect can provide some value as a switch-hitting fourth outfielder and solid defender at all three outfield spots. 

Unlikely

This list covers players that the D-backs may decide to risk losing to the Rule 5 Draft as opposed to handing a 40-man roster spot.

• RHP Levi Kelly
• RHP Matt Tabor
• OF Eduardo Diaz
• OF Alvin Guzman
• RHP Conor Grammes

Kelly and Tabor were former pitching prospects in the organization that have tapered off the past couple years due to injuries. The pair combined for three innings with the team's Double-A affiliate in Amarillo in the first week of the year. Tabor's injury is still unknown, but Kelly developed thoracic outlet syndrome and needed surgery to alleviate the issue. It's possible that teams may want to see firsthand if Kelly can regain his 2020 form, which is a potential back-end of the bullpen arm with two plus offerings, and return him back to Arizona if he's not.

Diaz had a somewhat disappointing year after what seemed like a breakthrough campaign in the 2021 season. The 25-year-old outfielder put up a 88 wRC+ in Double-A Amarillo with a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He follows the Stone Garrett mold of a strong right-handed bat with power, but with the downside of plate discipline issues and positionally limited to left field. 

Guzman was the D-backs top international free agent signing, for $1.65 million in 2018, but struggled with Low-A Visalia. He hit .202/.256/.296 in 70 games, with 107 strikeouts to just 19 walks, showing that the level was too overwhelming for him. For the money they used to sign him, he's firmly in the bust category unless he makes a big turnaround.

Grammes was a former two-way player that became a pitcher once going pro. Possessing a big-time fastball, the D-backs No. 28 prospect could be a buy-low option for a team looking to add velocity and see if he's ready for big league action. He's coming off Tommy John surgery in July 2021 and hasn't had much success in pro ball, so he could easily go unclaimed in the MLB portion but get selected in the Triple-A phase.