Zac Gallen and the 2023 NL Cy Young Race

Is he still the favorite? Who are the challengers?

Zac Gallen has been among the top contenders for the 2023 National League Cy Young Award for the entire season. He took off early in the year with a 28 inning scoreless streak and by midseason was leading the league in pitcher wins with 11. That resulted in him being named the NL All Star Game starter.  Gallen finished 5th in the voting last year, in large part due to a franchise record 44.1 scoreless innings streak.  Gallen's  follow up performance this year has undeniably cemented him as one of the top pitchers in the league. 

Whether or not he can capture the 2023 Cy Young award is less clear. Unlike last year, when Sandy Alcantara was the clear cut and unanimous favorite all year, this year's race is far tighter and murky.  At the moment there are three or four pitchers that seem to have a leg up, but none is the clear cut favorite, including Gallen. 

What follows is not so much a ranking of who is best, but more attempting to handicap where they currently might stand in the eyes of the voters. Barring injury, most of these pitchers have at least 8-10 starts remaining in their season, so a lot can change. Any pitcher on these lists, including those ranked 5th or 6th  or even someone just outside the current list could get on a run and capture the prize, or at least move up the rankings, while others could drop off. 

Traditional Pitcher Statistics

Jack Sommers

From the above chart we see six pitchers that are listed among the favorites. Logan Webb of the Giants  leads the league with 154 innings pitched, and Gallen is close behind with 150.  Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs) is tied with Taijuan Walker at 13 pitcher wins. Walker is not listed  however due to a 3.98 ERA likely pushing him out of contention, at least for now.  Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves) is right behind with 12 wins, and Gallen is stuck on 11. This is a problem for Gallen as it's been over a month since he last picked up a win and it's coincided with the D-backs team wide slump. 

Blake Snell (San Diego Padres) leads the league in ERA, but his innings total is low and his record is just 8-8.  Steele is right behind with a 2.68 ERA, and his combination of wins and ERA put him right in thick of things, despite his innings workload being on the lite side. Snell and Steele are the only two contenders with a sub 3.00 ERA. One important point to note however is that Snell pitches in an extreme pitcher's park in San Diego, while Wrigley Field is rated as a strong hitters ballpark. Park Adjusted ERA+ favors Steele, who has 171 ERA+ compared to Snell's 158. (100 = league average). 

Moving on to strikeouts and K/BB ratio, Strider leads the league in strikeouts and has a chance to set the all time K/9 record. His 14.35 K/9 is decimal points better than Shane Bieber's 14.20 mark set in the pandemic shortened 2020 season and Gerrit Cole's 13.82 mark from 2019 when he was with  the Houston Astros. The spectacular nature of Strider's strikeout rate is what has him this high, despite having one less win and a similar ERA to Walker.  Logan Webb and Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) have the best strikeout to walk ratio in the league, indicating an underlying quality that is better than their ERA numbers. Gallen and Strider are right behind. Snell is hurt here with his league leading 72 walks. 

WAR and Tom Tango's Cy Young Predictor

Jack Sommers

As most readers know, there are two primary WAR metrics created by two different websites, Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.  Baseball Reference WAR begins with runs allowed per nine innings, then makes adjustments for quality of opponents, defense behind the pitcher, and park factors. Fangraphs WAR is based solely on the components of FIP, or fielding independent pitching, which are strikeouts, walks and home runs. Fangraphs also makes adjustments for park factors. 

Both metrics and the average between the two are presented above. Each metric has their "believers" based on philosophical viewpoint, but my personal opinion is it's better to just average the two together. We're not trying to predict future performance, we're trying to measure the value of the current season for the purpose of awards and handicap what voters are likely to do. As such, results matter as much or more than underlying peripherals. 

Other than WAR, I have included a Cy Young Predictor metric created by Tom Tango.  Bill James had a somewhat famous predictor model, but over the years that has reduced in accuracy as voters are far less likely to vote for a closer in this era. Tango's model is updated and closer to reality at this point. 

As can be seen in the above tables, Gallen does quite well, leading in both the average WAR and the Tango predictor. At the same time it's very tightly bunched with Steele, Strider and Webb right on his tail.  Wheeler has the second highest average WAR at 3.4 due to having the highest fWAR. His excellent peripherals give him a 2.94 FIP, which is tied with Strider for the second best in the league. 

Summary:

If Steele manages to lead the league in both wins and ERA, helping propel the Cubs into the post season in the process, that may move him from unknown dark horse to an irresistible favorite for traditional voters. Gallen on the other hand needs to get back in the win column repeatedly over his next 10 starts or his chances will slip away, despite his underlying and overall excellence.  If he can manage to pick up five or six wins and lower his ERA back down to the low threes, then he would regain clear favorite status. 

One last point of opinion. It's very possible that how the playoff races play out will have a bigger impact than usual on the Cy Young award this year. Unlike the MVP,  standings  typically don't matter much if there is a clear outstanding performance above the rest. This is just a hunch, but voters may look to pitching well when it matters the most as a tie breaker if things remain this close.

Honorable Mention:

Clayton Kershaw is 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 173 ERA+ in 95 innings. Due back this week after missing over five weeks with yet another injury, it does not appear likely he will qualify for the ERA title.  With such a light workload, having made just 16 starts, he is not a serious contender for the award, despite his continued excellence when he does pitch.