Can Jake McCarthy Continue His Heroics in 2025?

The speedy outfielder will have an uphill battle to replicate or surpass his 2024 season.

Sep 15, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy (31) at bat in the fifth inning for a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images / Allan Henry-Imagn Images

As we continue our look at the individual player projections for the 2025 Arizona Diamondbacks, we come to a player who saw a major bounce-back in the 2024 season in Jake McCarthy.

These projections are a composite of ZiPS and Steamer, prorated to our own playing time projection.

OF Jake McCarthy, 27

Jake McCarthy statistics and 2025 projection / Alex D'Agostino / Diamondbacks On SI

The speedy, lefty-hitting McCarthy had struggled with both consistency and injury in 2023. There were questions about whether he was equipped to perform close to his excellent 2022 season.

As it turns out, 2024 was a major step in the right direction. McCarthy posted a .285/.349/.400 slash, and was one of the Diamondbacks' most consistent hitters. He was paramount to Arizona's MLB-leading offense.

If not for a small slump in the latter end of the season he might have maintained an even higher average. But can he do it again? His projections are more modest for 2025, but still beatable if he plays like he did the prior season.

Why McCarthy might outperform projections

McCarthy was simply one of the most successful hitters on the D-backs in 2024. While he maintained high percentages throughout the season, he posted a batting average well above .300 in back-to-back months over July and August.

But it's not as if those months were a totally random surge. McCarthy hit .295 in April, .259 in May, and .286 in June. His season average climbed as high as .313 on August 16.

McCarthy showcased a strong ability to hit to all areas of the field, leg out base hits on poorly struck balls, and even saw a surge in his previously lacking power.

While he only hit eight home runs, he posted a .517 slug in July and .495 in August, thanks to his five triples, four doubles, and five homers in that stretch.

He struck out at a much lower rate, and his expected batting average (.265) wasn't dismally lower than his actual average.

McCarthy proved that he is a viable MLB hitter. Over his 445 plate appearances, he put forward a very solid season at the plate, and his average splits were nearly identical between right- and left-hand pitching, though his slug took a dip against southpaws.

But it's not the first time his numbers have looked like that, as he placed fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022.

While his hits might not be the strong rips fans are looking for, McCarthy has found a way to take a more wholesale approach and keep the line moving, while creating chaos on the bases.

McCarthy was worth +18 batting run value, +4 baserunning run value, and +6 fielding run value, helped along by his +6 Outs Above Average and 98th percentile sprint speed.

All of that to say, these projections expect a relatively large step back.

While aspects like a projected .267 average might be reasonable, McCarthy has shown his capability to smash those numbers in an extended period of time.

But even if he can't live up to his 2024 self, even half of that overall production would lead to a larger aWAR total than a mere 1.5.

Why McCarthy might underperform these projections

While everything seemed to fall McCarthy's way in 2024, a steep regression to the mean could be in store.

While McCarthy certainly displayed a bit more pop in 2024, his underlying peripherals are somewhat of a concern. While his xBA was respectable, his expected slug was in the 22nd percentile at .359 to his eventual .400.

On top of that, his average exit velocity (84.5), Barrel rate (2.7%), and hard-hit percentage (24.5%) all ranked in the bottom 10% of MLB. The lefty might have found ways to make sure he was getting hits, but many weren't exactly convincing.

His ground ball rate was a high 50.4%, almost no different from when he hit .243 in 2023. But his 2024 BABIP sat 25 points higher than his 2023 total.

With that in mind, a large portion of McCarthy's success in 2025 will likely come down to batted ball luck. If that luck takes a step back from what it was in 2024, McCarthy's results might plummet below what is expected of him.

Summary

Ultimately, McCarthy has been a very valuable player for the D-backs. He accumulated over two aWAR in his 2024 season and could be poised for another excellent year if he maintains his high average.

That average could dip below projections if his contact quality doesn't improve and his luck declines, but his track record of high success at the plate could see him surpass those projections, especially if he's able to add more power and make more solid contact.

Regardless, McCarthy has carved out a deservedly large chunk of playing time, especially considering his consistent success rate against pitchers of both handedness.

McCarthy could easily take the step into stardom with another excellent season, if regression doesn't hit too hard.

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