Can the Offense Continue to Carry the Diamondbacks?

In a year beset by pitching injuries, the D-backs have relied on their historically good offense to keep them in the race.

Jul 29, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrates with teammates after hitting a walk off home run in the ninth inning to beat the Washington Nationals at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks and their fans have been enjoying one of the best offensive seasons in franchise history. The D-backs have scored 5.12 runs per game, which ranks second in MLB, behind only the New York Yankees (5.15). Arizona also ranks fifth in team OPS (.750) and OPS+ (110).

The 5.12 runs per game is the second highest total in franchise history, behind only the 1999 team which scored 5.6 runs per game. The 110 OPS+ in 2024 is by far the highest in franchise history. In 1999 the team had a 101 OPS+ which ranked third in the NL. That is the only other year the team's OPS+ has ever been over 100.

OPS+ is a metric that measures OPS against the league average, and then makes further adjustments for park factors. League average is 100. The higher the better. It's an important way to view offensive production because the league context can change so much, distorting our view.

For example, in 1999 the National League runs per game average was 5.00. The league average OPS was .771. Keep in mind that was without the DH except for Interleague games in American League ballparks. In 2024, with the universal DH, MLB is averaging 4.41 runs per game and a .712 OPS.

That is obviously a huge difference in run environment, and once you put the numbers in their proper context, it's pretty clear that the 2024 team is equally prolific to the 1999 team.

The D-backs have no fewer than eight hitters with at least 150 plate appearances and an OPS+ above league average 100. Joc Pederson (154 OPS+) and Ketel Marte (153 OPS+) lead the way. Christian Walker (127), Jake McCarthy (122), Randal Grichuk (112), Gabriel Moreno (103), Eugenio Suarez (102) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (101) round out that list. Full table HERE.

The offense has had to be that good, because the pitching has been well below average. The D-backs have allowed 4.71 runs per game, which ranks 24th in MLB. The team ERA of 4.48 ranks 225th.

It's clearly been the offense that has powered the team to a 58-51 record and into the third Wild Card position at the moment. The Diamondbacks are coming off a stunning July in which they scored 6.56 runs per game and posted an .852 team OPS. Both were the best in MLB and drove them to a 17-8 record.

They're due for some regression to begin with, and their upcoming opponents will have a lot to say about that as well. They're heading out on the road to play two of the best pitching staffs in MLB in the Pittsburgh Pirates (3.77 ERA) and the Cleveland Guardians (3.63 ERA). Those teams rank seventh and fourth respectively in MLB.

When they come back to Chase Field next weekend they'll face the Philadelphia Phillies in a four game series. The Phillies rank third in MLB with a 3.55 ERA. Thus, facing the 3rd, 4th, and 7th best pitching staffs in the league over their next 10 games, the D-backs are likely to come back down to earth on the offensive side of things.

In addition the D-backs have lost Christian Walker to an oblique strain for at leat the next three weeks. He'll be replaced by Josh Bell, who despite a hot streak just prior to being DFA'd and traded to the Diamondbacks, has a 93 OPS+.

Arizona will start to get reinforcements in the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to make his season debut in the Guardians series next week. Merrill Kelly could be behind him by a week, returning by the Rockies series at Chase following the Phillies.

At the same time however the team finds itself suddenly without a reliable closer just as they're likely to be playing a lot of close games. Paul Sewald has struggled mightily in July and Torey Lovullo hinted that a change may finally be underway. Just what that looks like is anybody's guess.

The D-backs have faced challenges and adversity all year, and have fought through them to put themselves in a position to make a run to the Postseason. But it's not going to be easy. August is called the Dog Days of Summer for a reason. It's also called moving month.

The D-backs will need to get improved pitching overall and maintain a semblance of good offense, even against the best pitching staffs in the league. If they can do so, they can keep moving forward.