Can Torey Lovullo Lead the Diamondbacks to the Postseason?

A thorough breakdown of where the Diamondbacks stand in their chase for a 2024 Postseason berth

Aug 17, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo (17) looks on against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has guided his team through an arduous season filled with injuries and setbacks to key players. Four of his five intended starting pitchers and his closer have spent significant time on the injured list.

His starting catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, as well as left and centerfielders have all been on the injured list as well. While all teams have injuries, few have had to deal with more time lost than Arizona. A detailed summary of all the injuries can be found at this link

It's a testament to both the front office as well as Lovullo and his coaching staff to have kept the team in hunt. That's of little consolation to fans frustrated by the team's recent skid and lackluster play however.

Coming off two disappointing losses in Colorado to the last place Rockies, the Diamondbacks have 11 games left to stake their claim to a playoff spot in 2024. With an 83-68 they currently hold the third and final NL Wild Card seed. Their record is the same as the New York Mets, but the Mets won the season series matchup 4-3, and thus hold the tiebreaker.

Two games behind the Diamondbacks are the Atlanta Braves who are 81-70. The San Diego Padres are 2.5 games ahead of Arizona and the Mets with an 86-66 record. It should be noted that the Mets also hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Padres with a 5-2 head to head record.

NL Standings Through September 17 / Jack Sommers

MAGIC NUMBERS

The Diamondbacks "Magic Number" with the Atlanta Braves is 10. Any combination of D-backs victories and Braves losses that equals 10 insures that the D-backs make the Postseason as the third Wild Card at the very least.

The Padres magic number to retain the first Wild Card position is nine over both the Mets and Diamondbacks. Any combination of Padres wins and losses by the Mets or D-backs insures they remain seeded ahead of those teams.

PLAYOFF ODDS

Oddly enough, each of the four websites shown in table below that produce playoff odds give the D-backs higher odds to make the Postseason, despite the tiebreaker advantage they hold. This may be because the Mets and Braves have three games head to head, and the Mets also play the Phillies four times and the Brewers for three.

Note: Table is ranked in order of the composite average playoff odds using Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN.

NL Wild Card Contenders Playoff Odds through September 17 / Jack Sommers

Fading Hopes of Hosting a Wild Card Series

While the D-backs playoff odds are still relatively high, almost double that of the Braves, the chances they will host a Wild Card series are somewhat slim. If the playoffs were to start today, the D-backs would travel to Milwaukee for the best of three series, and the Padres would host the Mets.

The D-backs still have a chance at first round home games, however, if they can eliminate the 2.5 games deficit with San Diego prior to the final weekend of the season. Then they'd need to win two of three to overtake the Padres for the number one seed. Or if they were one game back, they would then need to sweep the Padres. While not impossible, neither of those scenarios are likely.

Thus, if the seeding among the division leaders remains the same, the Diamondbacks path, should they make the Postseason, is eerily similar to 2023. They'd need to go into Milwaukee and take two of three. Then they would meet the Dodgers again in the Division series in Los Angeles. In that case they'd need to win at least one game in L.A. to insure more than one Postseason game back at Chase Field in the best of five series.

Remaining Schedule

The Diamondbacks finish up their three game series in Colorado Wednesday, starting at 12:10 P.M. Then they travel to Milwaukee for a four game series against the Brewers starting this Thursday.

Following that the-D-backs travel back home, and without an off day to host the San Francisco Giants for three games starting September 23. Finally, they have an off day on Thursday September 26, before the big final series of the year September 27-29 against the Padres.

Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo has stated numerous times that he believed it would come down to the final weekend of the season. As they stumble towards the finish with a 4-7 record over their last 11 games, the D-backs are tempting fate by playing some of their worst baseball at the worst possible time.

Stay tuned to Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI to see if the team can turn things around quickly and stop this slide.