Could the Stars Align for Christian Walker's Return to Arizona?

A softening in the first base market may be opening some pathways for Walker's return to the Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks first base Christian Walker (53) reacts during interviews after being eliminated from playoff contention at Chase Field on Sept. 30, 2024. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have had a very quiet offseason to date. Due to a confluence of factors, they have not made one major deal, either in free agency or trade, to plug any of the holes created by the departures of free agents Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and Kevin Newman.

Heretofore, it's been the editorial position of this website that the biggest holdup has been the inability of the team to trade Jordan Montgomery and a significant portion of his $22.5 million contract, thus freeing up funds for use in the free agent market.

While that is almost certainly a factor, it's not the only one. Long believed to be a long shot to re-sign Walker, market developments might be swinging in a direction that would make it possible for the D-backs to bring him back. If that is the case, waiting out that market could be the other big reason for the lack of movement on the Diamondbacks' part.

It should be noted that the team did make a qualifying offer to Walker for $21 million, even though he was always expected to reject that. But Arizona had to be prepared to pay that amount had he elected to accept. More on that QO later.

Walker was prescient in understanding the process when I interviewed him on September 30 after the Diamondbacks were eliminated from the Postseason. He also made clear that returning to Arizona was a possibility.

"There's a lot of unknowns here, a lot of uncertainties. There's a good chance I land here, but some unknowns," Walker said.

Walker said he'll handle his free agency "One day at a time, there's a process, I've never been through it before. So listening to the people around me, that I know I can trust their advice, but also just see how it comes... I'm looking forward to the opportunity for my family and for myself."

Now, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the "pipes are frozen" on the first base free agent market. He claims that Walker, who turns 34 in March, is looking for a four year deal, and teams are unwilling to go beyond three years.

Pete Alonso is considered by most pundits to be the "marquee" free agent first baseman in the class, and he's only entering his age 30 season in 2025. But his last two seasons have been below the standard of his previous four, and his defense is considered mediocre at best.

Meanwhile price tags for players such as Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana remain too high according to Passan. Josh Bell and Anthony Rizzo are on the market as well. So wth plenty of options between the top, middle, and bottom of the first base market, teams are understandably taking their time to sort it all out.

At this juncture, we need to circle back and take a closer look at how teams have behaved with with regards to free agent first baseman in their thirties. Going back over the previous three off-seasons there are five true first baseman that fit that category and have signed multi year deals (multi-positional players such as Cody Bellinger or DJ LeMahieu are not included). See table below with explanations to follow.

Free Agent First Baseman Comparison 2022-2025 / Jack Sommers

• An asterisk denotes player received a qualifying offer.

• 2 Yrs avg aWAR is the average of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs WAR for the previous two seasons before signing.

• AAV/WAR gives us an approximation of how much teams have been paying first basemen in their thirties on multi-year deals, relative to recent production.

ANALYSIS

Freeman is the only true superstar first baseman that has been signed in the last three years, and he was paid accordingly. Note that his contract calls for $162 million, but due to deferrals, is worth $148 million in adjusted dollars, so his average annual reported in the CBT drops from 27 to 24.7.

His contract, while containing some risk due to age and injury risk, clearly has been been a home run for the Dodgers, as he's gone on to be a tremendous value over his contract amount.

Jose Abreu on the other hand was a disaster signing for the Houston Astros. The oldest player in the table at the time of signing, he immediately fell off a cliff in terms of production, and ultimately was released midway through the 2024 season. That could be a factor in the Astros being reluctant to engage in a multi-year deal for a first baseman.

Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, and Rhys Hoskins all disappointed their teams and did not produce at levels commensurate to their contracts. The results for all but Freeman highlight the risks of signing first basemen in their 30's.

Add to that the issue of the qualifying offer. Teams that sign these players are penalized in the form of losing a draft pick or picks in the upcoming amateur draft. Having already signed Max Fried, as a Luxury Tax payor, the Yankees will already forfeit their second and fifth highest selections in the draft. Should they sign one of Walker or Alonso, they will also lose their third and sixth highest picks as well.

Walker's desire for a fourth year, the track record of first basemen in their mid-30's, and the draft pick penalty, may very well drive the Yankees towards a one year deal with Goldschmidt or Santana. That allows them to also jump back into the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sweepstakes when he is a free agent next year.

The New York Mets of course need a first baseman, and many in the industry believe that ultimately Alonso will end up back with that team. But his agent is Scott Boras and he's likely to drag things out as long as possible. The table above shows Alonso's value to be shockingly low at $82 million for five years.

While this model clearly does not capture Alonso's market, as he'll almost certainly get a deal over $100 million in total value, there is a large gap between his actual value and his perceived value in the media. It's being reported by SI Fastball that his free agency is likely to drag on for quite some time.

In addition to the Yankees, Mets, and Astros, and of course the Diamondbacks, teams that are reported to be in on the first base market are the Mariners and Cardinals, but neither of those teams appear ready to spend big at the position.

There is also the trade market option for these teams, with the Guardians' Josh Naylor reportedly available due to him being in his final arbitration year before becoming a free agent next year.

All of the above factors add up to a dampening of the first base market, and in Walker's case, an increase in the chances he could return to Arizona. It's still difficult to imagine the D-backs committing to three years, or $60 million, as the table above would suggest however.

The two avenues for the D-backs to bring Walker back would be to either significantly reduce the total value on a three-year guarantee to the $51-54 million range. The other would be to only guarantee two years at a higher average annual of say $20 million, but include reasonable milestones to make the third year a vesting option.

Either that or some kind of a buyout structure of a third year team option that would at least guarantee Walker upwards of $45 million.

Of course it's unknown how long it could take for such a low market to materialize for the Gold Glover. The point here is there are creative pathways for the Arizona Diamondbacks to bring Christian Walker back and still retain some flexibility to address some of the other team needs. But only if the market for Walker is truly softening, as appears to be case based on the factors shown above.