Is Cristian Mena Ready for MLB with All of his Pitches?
![Arizona Diamondbacks Cristian Mena during photo day at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on Feb. 21, 2024. Arizona Diamondbacks Cristian Mena during photo day at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on Feb. 21, 2024.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_2296,h_1291,x_0,y_165/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/inside_the_diamondbacks/01jja7bdvhv5v09rfmys.jpg)
Continuing our series of Arizona Diamondbacks player reviews, rookie starting pitcher, Cristian Mena is up next. The projection below is a composite of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our playing time projection.
Cristian Mena, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher, Age: 22
Cristian Mena is entering his second year with the Diamondbacks. He made his MLB debut last year against the vaunted Dodgers. He missed the final month or so of the season after being put on the 7-Day IL with a right forearm strain that did not need surgery. He's expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Why Mena may outperform the projection
Mena has three pitches that are or have the potential to be plus pitches in MLB. His curveball is lethal and already graded as a 60-grade. The slider is a 55-grade while the changeup is a 50-grade.
They are all above-average and will be his most viable weapons against MLB hitters. His fastball does need some work as it's just 91-93 MPH. However, he does throw a sinker that could be his ticket to establishing his fastball against hitters.
It averaged 95.6 MPH in his brief time in MLB last season, but that could've been due to adrenaline. With the pitch's movement, it would add another viable weapon with movement to his toolbox of pitches.
Regardless, Mena is a fastball away from being a quality starting pitcher in MLB. Mena excelled over his first 11 starts and 56 innings last year. He had a 3.70 ERA and opponents had just a .243 average. This was despite the lackluster fastball.
However, he encountered struggles, mainly due to the fastball. Over the following five starts and 26.2 innings, Mena pitched to a 7.43 ERA. He was called up after that and performed decently enough for a young rookie that got called up suddenly to face MLB's best team.
His final three starts once again showed promise and potential as he threw 13 innings and had a 2.77 ERA with 13 strikeouts and eight walks.
For the most part, he handled a rough offensive environment such as the Pacific Coast League with aplomb. He navigated it well, encountered struggles, and then learned from it and bounced back.
This is exactly what you expect from a MLB-caliber pitcher and a big reason as to why he is likely to outperform these projections.
With three above-average pitches and a potential league-average fastball, there's no reason Mena can't be better than an average pitcher, even in a small sample size. After all, he struck out 24.1% of Triple-A batters he faced, higher than average.
He limited hard contact in Triple-A too with just an 86.8 MPH average exit velocity, a vast improvement over his 90.2 in 2023 with the White Sox. He dropped his Hard-Hit rate by 4.2% to 31.3% in 2024.
He fed his defenders ground balls with a 46.8% rate, a number that can help keep his ERA down and allow him to pitch longer in games and have shorter innings, especially in MLB. All these factors will aid Mena in pitching better than his debut and better than these projections in 2025.
Why Mena might underperform the projection
Aside from how his debut went in 2024, two words could upend his performance this year and cause him to fall well short of his projections. Those two words are control and fastball.
He walked far too many batters last year in Reno with a 10.8% rate. 4.33 walks per nine innings is just too high for a good starting pitcher to have. That will lead to far too many scoring chances and potential big innings.
While MLB average is 11%, one would prefer if Mena could limit his walks to 9% or less as a starter. Allowing too many runners on base would set himself up for failure in MLB and can easily cause him to let in too many runs and drive his WHIP sky-high.
Part of it could've been due to his pitches moving too much thanks to the elevation of the ballparks in the PCL. Some of it is certainly due to him just being young and still learning how to locate his elite pitches. Still, it must be controlled this year in order to reach his goals.
But his fastball is just not an MLB weapon, at least not yet. It gets hit too hard and doesn't move enough. There's hope for the sinker but only if Arizona encourages him to throw it more often. Not having a good fastball in MLB will make it far too easy for hitters to attack him at the plate.
A fastball that is at least league-average has to be developed in order for Mena to have any shot of coming close to these projections in 2025.
Summary
Mena is a talented pitching prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization. That's evidenced by him being rated as the No.12 prospect in the system. He has three above-average pitches and strikes out batters in droves.
He limits hard contact, limits contact in general, and has shown how he can grow and overcome struggles in a tough pitching environment. However, he's a bit too wild and must improve the fastball if there's any hope for him to be a regular starting pitcher in MLB in the future.
Perhaps a sinker is the answer, but Mena needs an answer to that issue in order to reach these projections.