D-backs and Rockies Series Preview: Surviving Coors Field

The Diamondbacks tattered pitching staff will be challenged in the high octane run environment at 5000 feet elevation.

Apr 5, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; A general view inside Coors field during a flyover before the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Colorado Rockies. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in Denver, Colorado for a three game series against the Rockies starting Monday night.

The D-backs' record is 83-66 and they hold the second NL Wild Card seed, with a 2.0 game lead over the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. The Rockies are 57-93, which is the third worst record in the league, ahead of only the Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox. But they're 6-4 in their last 10 games, and 34-39 at home.

The Diamondbacks hold an 8-2 season series edge over Colorado and have outscored them 65-37 on the year. The last time the D-backs visited Coors field was April 8-10. Those three games were relatively low scoring, by the standards of the ballpark set at over 5,000 feet elevation. The D-backs scored 13 runs and allowed 12, taking that series 2-1.

Coors field remains the most hitter friendly park in MLB. Park factors at Baseball Reference and Statcast measure the park as inflating offense between 11%-12% respectively. The Rockies know how to take advantage of their home ballpark too, as they average 5.0 runs per game on offense at Coors, while allowing 5.7.

All of the above is to say that despite having another dreadful season, the Rockies are still dangerous at home and Coors Field can still shred a pitching staff. For a D-backs team struggling mightily on the mound with a league worst 6.42 ERA in September, this series presents plenty of risks and challenges.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Monday, September 16, 5:40 p.m. Arizona Time

Merrill Kelly RHP, 4-0, 4.26 ERA, 4.80 FIP in 57 IP

Kelly was pulled in the fifth inning of his last start due to a right hamstring cramp. The veteran right-hander has battled cramping issues frequently in the past. Despite that the team cleared him to pitch in Colorado. Kelly missed nearly four months due to a shoulder strain earlier in the year.

Antonio Senzatela RHP, Career 39-43, 4.87 ERA, 4.41 FIP in 680 IP

Senzatela is making his first start of the year after having Tommy John surgery in July of 2023. Prior to the injury he threw a 94.4 MPH four seamer, a slider and a changeup. Senzatela told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post he concentrated on working on his curveball during his rehab process. He made five rehab starts, striking out 18 batters while walking just four in 17 innings.

Tuesday, September 17, 5:40 p.m. Arizona Time

Jordan Montgomery LHP, 8-6, 6.25 ERA, 4.55 FIP in 108 IP

Montgomery is making his first start since August 21. He had been demoted to a long relief role due to ineffectiveness. The injury to Ryne Nelson forced the D-backs to move Montgomery back into the rotation however.

Ryan Feltner RHP, 2-10, 4.89 ERA, 4.23 FIP in 144 IP

Feltner has a 6.25 ERA at Coors Field and a 3.93 ERA on the road. He throws primarily mid 90's four seamer and sinker along with a hard slider. He also has a curveball and changeup. His curveball has actually been an effective pitch for him, but he only throws it 10% of the time.

Wednesday, September 18, 12:10 p.m. Arizona Time

Eduardo Rodriguez LHP, 2-3, 5.50 ERA, 4.83 FIP in 34.1 IP

Rodriguez had one of his better starts against the Brewers last time out. He struck out seven batters in the first three innings, and the only runs he allowed were on a two-run homer by Rhys Hoskins in the fourth.

Austin Gomber LHP, 5-10, 4.44 ERA, 4.70 FIP in 158 IP

Gomber actually has a lower ERA at home than on the road (4.30 vs. 4.55). This despite allowing a higher batting average at Coors Field. He's only walked 16 of 289 batters faced at home, 5.5%.

This is the key to success at Coors Field. Hits are going to fall into that huge outfield no matter what the pitcher does. Issuing free passes to avoid contact is never a good recipe to begin with, but in this ballpark it's a recipe for disaster. Something for D-backs pitchers to remember.

BULLPENS

Neither team has a strong bullpen. For the full season Fangraphs rates the Rockies 29th in MLB, compared to the D-backs at number 20. Likewise, Baseball Reference rates the Rockies 30th, and the D-backs 18th.

September has been a different story, as the D-backs have an MLB worst 7.49 reliever ERA this month, while the Rockies 3.45 reliever ERA in September ranks 13th. This is just another piece of evidence that points towards not taking this series lightly.

Justin Martinez (2.43 ERA, eight saves) has been getting the save chances since early August, but don't be surprised if left-hander A.J. Puk gets a few save chances coming up very soon. He has allowed just one run in 21 innings since joining the D-backs in a trade with the Marlins at the deadline. He has 33 strikeouts and walked just four.

Tyler Kinney (5.80 ERA, 12 saves) and Victor Vodnik (4.26 ERA, nine saves) have shared closer duties on and off, but Kinney has wrestled the job away to himself of late.

OFFENSE

The Diamondbacks continue to have the league's best offense, leading all of MLB in runs per game, (5.45) and OPS (.778). Their league and park adjusted OPS+ is 115, which ranks third. League average is 100. Joc Pederson (157 OPS+) and Ketel Marte (152 OPS+) are the season leaders, but every starter on the team is over 100 OPS+, giving Arizona the deepest lineup top to bottom in the league.

Despite playing home games at Coors Field, the Rockies rank 21 in MLB scoring 4.20 runs per game. Once park factors are applied to the Rockies their 18th ranked OPS of .701 becomes the 26th ranked OPS+ at 89.

Catcher Jacob Stallings (119), first baseman Michael Toglia (107), and center fielder Brenton Doyle (107) are the only above average Rockies starters. Ryan McMahon has a 98 OPS+ in 2024, just below league average 100.