Debunking the Myth of Jordan Montgomery's Spring Training

The false narrative that lack of spring training has caused Jordan Montgomery's poor season should be put to bed.

Jul 23, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery (52) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery came into the 2024 season with a career 38-34 record and a 3.68 ERA in 140 major league starts. His ERA+ was 116, with the league average being 100.

Pitching for both the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers, 2023 was the best season of his career. Montgomery threw a career-high 189 regular season innings while posting a career-low 3.20 ERA. He then went on to pitch 31 more innings in the Postseason, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA.

Montgomery walked into free agency together with his agent Scott Boras, expecting a big payday on a multi-year deal. But as the offseason went on and spring training neared, Montgomery was among a number of marquee free agents represented by Boras that did not get the big multi-year contract they were pushing for.

News broke in late March that the Diamondbacks, reacting to the Eduardo Rodriguez injury, made their move to sign Montgomery. Finally, on March 29th, one day after the regular season had started, the signing was made official. The contract was for one year $25 million contract, with a vesting player option that increased with the number of starts.

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Having missed all of spring training, Montgomery had been working out on his own and was reported to have gotten up to 75 pitches thrown in those private workouts. He immediately went to the Diamondbacks Salt River complex to continue his ramp-up. That was followed by minor league games for Triple-A Reno on April 7th and 13th.

Montgomery made his season debut with the Diamondbacks on April 19th. Year to date, he has made 18 starts and posted a miserable 6.25 ERA. Thanks to tremendous run support to the tune of 6.53 runs per game, Montgomery's record is 8-6 and the team record in his starts is 11-7.

The oft stated narrative is that missing spring training caused Montgomery to have such a poor season. There is only one problem with that. Two of his best outings were the first two of the year.

Montgomery went six innings against the Giants in San Francisco in his debut. He allowed just one run on four hits, with three strikeouts, and most importantly, didn't walk a batter. He threw 54 of 78 pitches for strikes, 69%. In short, he was very sharp, crisp, and efficient.

In his second start, he went seven innings against the Cardinals, giving up three runs on seven hits, walking one and striking out four. 62 of 87 pitches, 71% were for strikes. He perhaps tired a bit towards the end, giving up two runs in the sixth and one in the seventh. But, it was another quality start.

In his first two starts, he threw 13 innings, walked one batter, struck out seven, and threw 70% of pitches for strikes while giving up just four runs for a 2.77 ERA and 3.31 FIP

The only red flag perhaps was velocity. Last year, during the regular season his sinker came in at 93.3 MPH. During the postseason that was down slightly at 92.8. In these first two starts of 2024, the sinker clocked in at 91.5

Since those first two games, Montgomery has made 16 starts and averaged just 4.77 IP per start with a 6.84 ERA. His FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching number is 4.60. So, perhaps there has been some misfortune causing his ERA to be quite that high. But keep in mind his career FIP heading into 2024 was 3.75

After exhibiting his trademark sharp command and strike-throwing ability in his first two starts, that left him in subsequent outings. Montgomery has walked 34 batters in his last 76.1 innings That works out to 4.0 per 9 innings. His career mark prior to that was 2.5/9. His strike percentage over that span is down to 62%. (MLB average is 64.3%)

Montgomery spent several weeks on the injured list prior to and after the All-Star Break due to left knee inflammation. He is a large man, and perhaps a few pounds overweight, but it's believed he pitched at the same or similar weight last year.

Over his last 15 starts, the sinker velocity still averaged just 91.7, but there is a glimmer of hope. In his most recent outing against Colorado on August 14th, his sinker was finally back up to 92.8. He also struck out a season-high eight batters.

Montgomery is in a fight for his rotation spot. He's being pushed by Ryne Nelson, who has been the Diamondbacks' best starter since early July. The team has been vacillating over whether to stick with a six-man rotation or not.

Each and every outing is being "thinly sliced" according to Torey Lovullo. With the team in a tight race for a Postseason berth, they can't afford to throw away games, and can't count on Montgomery to continue to receive 6.5 runs per game of support. He simply has to pitch better.

Having reached 18 starts, Montgomery's vesting option for 2025 is up to $22.5 million. If he makes five more starts, including Wednesday's game in the series finale against the Marlins, that goes up to $25 million, matching 2024.

Whether or not he elects to exercise that player option or hit the free agent market will largely depend on how he pitches from here on out and whether he can secure a Postseason rotation spot. If he pitches well over his final six outings and helps the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Postseason, then he might opt out and try the market again.

If he continues to struggle and post a high ERA from here on out, he might not even hit that final vesting number of 23 starts. The D-backs nonetheless could be on the hook for an albatross contract of at least $22.5 million heading into 2025.

All of these factors make each and every start critical for Montgomery, and for the team.

Contract info courtesy of Cots Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus. Pitch velocity data is fromBaseball Savant