Despite Free fall D-backs Can Still Clinch Wild Card Sunday

As bleak as things are, there are scenarios in which the D-backs could still get clinch, even on Sunday

Arizona Diamondbacks batter Christian Walker (53) reacts to his line out against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field in Phoenix on Sept. 23, 2024. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost five out of six games and with an 88-73 record, find themselves on the precipice of being eliminated from Postseason play. This seemed almost impossible to imagine at the end of play on September 21.

They had just beaten the Milwaukee Brewers three in a row, and had a three game lead over the Braves with seven left to play. But they blew an eight run lead on Sunday to the Brewers to lose 10-9 and have been reeling ever since.

The Braves are 88-71, and the Mets are 87-72. Both those teams hold the head-to-head tie breaker against the D-backs. Yet there are still scenarios the D-backs could get into the Postseason, even one that includes the possibility of clinching on Sunday.

See the below tweet. Poster "Samath", an AZSnakepit writer, has been doing some great work, and lists out the possible scenarios in the most succinct way I've seen, so I'm sharing that.

Scenarios for tomorrow #SavedYouAClick pic.twitter.com/wLwyRdnaty

— AZ SnakePit (@AZSnakepit) September 29, 2024

Of course almost all of these scenarios except number five involve the D-backs winning a game, something they have failed to do lately.

Ironically it's the offense that has let them down for the most part since last Sunday's game. Over the last five games, starting with the series against the Giant on Monday, they are batting .201/.299/.289, .588 OPS. They've scored 14 runs, or 2.8 per game.

Eight of those runs came in the lone game they won this week. They've scored 3,0,8,3, and 0 runs in their last five games. This from a team that leads all of MLB in runs scored per game with 5.43. That's well ahead of the Dodgers, who have scored 5.22/G. MLB average is 4.40.

Meanwhile the pitching staff continues to take turns struggling. Some days it's been the starters, other days the relievers. And in some cases the defense has let them down. In total the team has allowed 29 runs (5.8 per game) and posted a 5.23 ERA with a 5.08 FIP this past week.

The pitching staff ranks 26th in runs allowed, (4.88) and 27th in ERA (4.64). This has been a season long issue, that has only been exacerbated in September.

It may be hard at the moment to telescope out and look beyond this past week of offensive failure. But we shouldn't forget that the offense has been compensating for the pitching staff all season long. Make no mistake, if the pitching staff were just somewhere near league average, the D-backs would have over 90 wins and long since clinched a Postseason berth.

That said, questions abound as to why the D-backs seem to struggle on offense when the pressure to make the Postseason is at it's highest. Over the final five games last year the team scored just six runs and hit. 149/.257/.196. They lost their final four games, but got in the playoffs anyway, and ended up winning the National League Pennant.

Corbin Carroll has hit well this past week, and hit well the last week of 2023 too. But Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Gabriel Moreno each struggled in the final week of 2023 and have struggled this week as well.

Does that mean they can't handle pressure? No, of course not. It's likely just unfortunate coincidence. Could they be playing tight? Sure, that's the way it looks to people not standing in the batters box. Asked if players were pressing, Christian Walker had some thoughts.

"Not overly, I mean everybody wants to win games, everybody wants to be the guy that puts us in a good situation and opens it up. But it doesn't feel like anybody is putting too much pressure on themselves."

Walker didn't gloss over his own failures however. "I definitely want to be accountable. I missed some opportunity to drive some pitches and drive in some runs tonight. But in the same sense we are out there preparing in the right way, prepared to execute, and it just didn't go our way tonight".

One postscript to this offensive collapse is that the D-backs did not take on field batting practice before the game, opting for cage work only. That seemed odd, given the situation, and the fact that they had skipped BP once earlier this week.

It should be noted that the team forgoes on field batting practice about 20 to 25 times a year. Also the Padres did not take on field BP either. And the Giants didn't take on field BP when the D-backs skipped it earlier this week either.

Still, it seemed odd given the circumstances. Asked about that at the end of his press conference Saturday night, and whether that had anything to do with the team coming out flat on offense, manager Torey Lovullo didn't think so.

"It's easy to connect it, I see that. I don't know, I trust the hitting coaches. When they tell me the boys need to get off their feet and we got everything covered in the batting cage, I'm good with that. We do it a lot during the year. It's highlighted right now because of zero runs and two hits, I get it."

If the D-backs don't hit in the Sunday regular season finale, they'll have a lot more time off their feet earlier than they had planned.