Diamondbacks 2025 Player Projections: Eduardo Rodríguez

The big left-hander is expected to put out a surprising bounce-back season in 2025.

Sep 23, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57) throws in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images / Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series reviewing the projections for each member of the Arizona Diamondbacks 40-man roster, as well as select prospects and non-roster invitees. The order of presentation was chosen using a random number generator.

The projection is comprised of the average of ZiPS and Steamer rate statistic projections, which can be found on FanGraphs. The playing time projections are our own, based on our estimates. As the D-backs make further moves throughout the offseason, the playing time projections will be updated, and relevant counting stats such as home runs and WAR can be updated.

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, 31

Eduardo Rodríguez statistics, projection and league average / Alex D'Agostino | Diamondbacks ON SI

Why Rodríguez might outperform this projection

It's truly difficult to evaluate lefty starter Eduardo Rodríguez's 2024 season, as it was limited heavily by a left lat strain. With that in mind, the D-backs haven't seen anything close to his best possible performance.

His projected 3.86 ERA is, however, a significant improvement from his poor 2024, and even most of his career numbers.

With that in mind, it's quite feasible to imagine that he outperforms some of his rate stats in the 2025 campaign, and he's not far removed from a career-best 3.30 ERA in 2023.

His strikeout rate was significantly down in 2024. That's likely at least in part due to injury. His movement and velocity suffered, but he still prevented walks and threw strikes at a very high rate.

While his stuff was frequently crushed, he didn't appear to be struggling with control, and an off-season to return to full form could easily see him put up a solid or even excellent ERA.

One number in particular to watch is his strikeout rate. It was down to 21.0% in 2024, and is projected only a slight improvement to 21.8% in 2025. That number isn't quite in line with his career tendencies, as he posted a K% near or above 25% from 2017-2021.

Even in 2023, that number was higher, at 23.0%. While his raw results could certainly see an improvement from a fully healthy Rodríguez and entirely new pitching coach regime, it's reasonable to expect more punchouts from the lefty in 2025.

Why Rodríguez might underperform this projection

Unfortunately, injuries to the throwing shoulder of this nature can sometimes be career-killers. At age 31, with plenty of wear and tear and a history of being somewhat injury-prone, it's hard to imagine Rodríguez putting up much better than slightly above-average numbers.

This projection is relatively kind to the southpaw, but with his rate stats dwindling in recent years, and the fact that that he posted his career-high ERA in a much weaker division in 2023, it's not unlikely that Rodríguez will put up pedestrian stats in 2025.

His peripheral numbers could be accurate, but his ERA could see a disparity with the projected number, especially if his batted ball luck leans against him.

Summary

The key will likely be staying healthy for the big lefty. When he's not plagued by injury, he's got the ceiling of a very solid pitcher, though he doesn't provide an enormous number of innings.

It's reasonable to expect a sturdy season out of Rodríguez barring unforeseen circumstances, and with the addition of Corbin Burnes, there won't be much pressure for him to perform at a top-end level, even despite his hefty contract.

It seems odd to assume Rodríguez will live up to the 3.86 ERA projection, but then again, he never even scratched the surface of his capability with the D-backs in 2025, and there's a level of uncertainty that can only be dispelled by seeing him in more consistent action.

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