Diamondbacks and Giants Series Preview

The D-backs are in San Francisco for three games at the pitcher's paradise of Oracle Park.

Apr 5, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; A general view from McCovey Cove before the game between the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports / kelley l cox-usa today sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in San Francisco for three games at Oracle Park against the Giants. The two NL West rivals have faced each other just seven times so far this season, with the D-backs holding a slim 4-3 edge in the season series.

The Diamondbacks are coming off a difficult 2-5 homestand in which they lost two of three to the Mets and then three of four to the Dodgers. That has all but squashed their chances of catching the Dodgers in the NL West, but they are still in the second NL Wild Card. The Braves are 2.5 games behind the D-backs, and the Mets are just 3.0 behind Arizona.

The Giants were sellers at the trade deadline but remain on the very periphery of Wild Card contention, 6.5 games behind Atlanta. The Giants lost two of three to the Marlins at home over the weekend and are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

The Diamondbacks are likely to get a potential boost to their lineup by activating Christian Walker for this series, perhaps as early as Tuesday afternoon prior to the first game of the series.

STANDINGS

NL Standings September 3, 2024 / Jack Sommers

ORACLE PARK

Oracle Park in San Francisco remains an extreme pitcher's ballpark in MLB. The single year Park Factor rating is 93 and multi (3 year) factor is 94 according to Baseball Reference. 100 equals a neutral park, under 100 favors pitchers, and over 100 favors hitters. The only stadium that favors pitchers more than Oracle is T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Chase Field rates as 100, or neutral.

This effect tamps down the run scoring and batting numbers, and props up the pitching statistics. For example, the Giants .701 team batting OPS ranks 21st in MLB, but their team adjusted OPS+ of 100, which is exactly league average, ranks 14th. Meanwhile the D-backs OPS+ of 114 is the 4th best in MLB.

Similarly, the Giants team ERA of 4.19 ranks 20th, but the ERA+ is just 94, and ranks 24th. The Diamondbacks have a 4.53 team ERA, significantly higher than the Giants, but their 93 ERA+ is only slightly worse.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

As of this writing the Giants have not announced their starting pitchers for the series. The pitchers listed below for San Francisco are projected.

Tuesday, September 3rd 6:45 P.M.

Ryne Nelson RHP, 9-6, 4.22 ERA, 3.74 FIP in 136.1 IP

Nelson is coming off another strong outing, going 6.1 innings and allowing two earned runs against the Mets on August 29th. Nelson has been by far the best Diamondbacks hurler since the calendar flipped to July. Over his last 11 games he's thrown 68.1 IP with a 2.77 ERA and a 3.00 FIP to match.

Kyle Harrison LHP, 7-6, 4.22 ERA, 4.29 FIP in 11.2 IP

The 22 year old rookie has had a solid season overall, but may be tiring. In five starts in August he's thrown 24 innings while posting a 6.38 ERA. Those numbers are somewhat inflated perhaps by two blowup outings, including most recently when he gave up five runs to Milwaukee in 4.1 innings.

Harrison has much better numbers at home, posting a 3.43 ERA while allowing just five of his 17 homers at Oracle Park.

Wednesday, September 4th 6:45 P.M.

Zac Gallen RHP, 10-6, 3.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP in 121 IP

Gallen has been up and down since returning in late June after missing a month with a hamstring injury. He was pounded for five early runs against the Dodgers on August 30th, but managed to settle down and complete five innings. In 11July starts Gallen threw 57.1 innings and posted 5.02 ERA. His FIP is 3.65 over that span however, indicating the dropoff may not be as severe as surface stats indicate.

Hayden Birdsong RHP, 3-4, 5.14 ERA, 5.14 FIP in 49 IP

Birdsong is another 22 year old rookie pitching in the Giants' rotation. He has a big fastball (avg 96 MPH) and big strikeout numbers (60), but big walk totals (30) to go with it. He doesn't give up many hits, but has allowed nine homers. Six of those have come on the road however and his home ERA is 4.20.

Thursday, September 5th, 12:45 P.M.

Merrill Kelly RHP, 4-0, 4.30 ERA, 5.26 FIP in 46 IP

Kelly has yet to find his footing since returning after a near four month absence due to a shoulder injury. In four starts, 21.1 innings since returning he has a 6.75 ERA and 6.97 FIP.

Plagued by low velocity his first couple of starts back, the velocity has returned over the last two. But his command and control have been off, leading to location mistakes, big hits and big innings. The Dodgers greeted him with three straight homers to begin his last outing.

Blake Snell LHP, 2-3, 3.56 ERA, 2.77 FIP in 86 IP

Snell has made just 16 starts this year, but has been outstanding over his last 10, posting a microscopic 1.30 ERA and 2.04 FIP in 62.1 innings. That included a no-hitter against the Reds at the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. He's struck out a whopping 12 batters per nine and will be an extremely tough matchup for Arizona.

MISCELLANEOUS

The Diamondbacks are 23-26 in games started by left-hand pitchers. Teams have been re-arranging their rotations accordingly. Their best hitter against left-hand pitchers is Ketel Marte, but he is not expected to play in this series.

Corbin Carroll has a 41 game on base streak in games started, a franchise record.

Eugenio Suarez leads the major leagues in RBI since July 1st with 54. He's hit .305 with a .986 OPS and 17 homers since that date.

Giants Rookie Tyler Fitzgerald has hit .295 with 14 homers and a .891 OPS in 259 PA. 10 of those 14 homers came in a 10 game stretch from July 9th to July 27th. The 26 year old right-hand slugger was a 4th round draft pick by the Giants in 2019.

Matt Chapman has been hot over his last six games, going 8-21, .385, with two doubles and a homer. His .248 Batting average with 21 homers and 68 RBI may not look overly impressive, but thanks to the aforementioned park factors, his adjusted OPS+ of 121 is well above average.

Coupled with his usual standout defense at third base (+13 defensive runs saved) Chapman is rated asa 5.9 WAR player by Baseball Reference.