Diamondbacks Close Out First Half at Home vs Blue Jays

The D-backs will face Toronto in the final series before the All-Star break.

Jul 11, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks third base Eugenio Suárez (28) celebrates with outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) after hitting a solo home run against the Atlanta Braves in the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the home stretch of the first half of MLB's season. After a successful road trip in southern California, Arizona split a four-game set with the Atlanta Braves.

Now, the Blue Jays will come to Phoenix for a three game series. Toronto has struggled in 2024, with a lackluster 43-50 record, 8.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot. They've been hot of late, however, going 4-1 in their last five and winning back-to-back series against the Mariners and Giants.

The D-backs have kept themselves afloat at 47-47, just one game back of an NL Wild Card berth, but have failed to capitalize on an opportunity to rocket above .500 and occupy a playoff spot, largely due to three blown saves by closer Paul Sewald.

Pitching Matchups

Friday, July 12th, RHP Ryne Nelson vs RHP Yariel Rodriguez

Ryne Nelson has been caught in a repetitive cycle in 2024. A rough start, some more solid starts, an excellent start, and repeat. His 5.08 ERA is less than impressive, although his FIP is a more respectable 4.31.

In his last two starts, Nelson has put together some excellent innings, going a collective 11 2/3, allowing just two runs and striking out eight--a higher punchout rate than the righty is used to. His most recent start saw him go 6 2/3 strong innings, allowing only three hits, with a solo homer in the first inning being his only blemish.

Yariel Rodriguez has only started seven games, but he's been generally effective. He boasts a 3.68 ERA and .222 average against. He's pitched back-to-back quality starts, allowing just three hits and 1 run over 12 2/3 innings, however, his most recent two starts have been the only games he's pitched more than four innings.

Rodriguez features a diverse arsenal, with a mid-90s fastball and sinker. He also throws a slider, curveball and occasional splitter, all of which have outstanding vertical movement. He's not immune to occasional blowups, as he's been bit for three or more runs early multiple times. The D-backs will look to get off to an early, hot start, as they have been known to do.

Saturday, July 13th, RHP Yilber Diaz vs RHP Jose Berrios

Yilber Diaz made his first MLB start against the Atlanta Braves on July 8th, and it was a brilliant one. His upper-90s fastball, coupled with his plus breaking weapons created an instant electricity in his MLB debut. He pitched six innings, allowing four hits and a walk, while striking out five. He allowed just one run on a solo homer.

Although the D-backs went on to blow Diaz's late lead, the young righty has now been effective at the Double-A, Triple-A and major league level, all in one season. While there could be a possibility for a "welcome to the majors" moment, especially following such a strong debut, Diaz is one of the most exciting young arms in the D-backs' organization, and has certainly earned his next start.

Jose Berrios has looked mostly effective, as usual, although his last few starts seem to have hit a bit of a rough patch. He had a 4.85 ERA in the month of June, and, in two July starts, that number reached 7.36. His season ERA still sits sub-4.00, but he's allowed nine runs over his last 11 innings.

Berrios throws a sinker/four-seam combo that spikes around 94-95 mph, with a cutter that doesn't trail far behind. He also throws a changeup and a slider/curveball hybrid. None of his pitches have had exceptional run value, but he's gotten the job done for the most part, with six Quality Starts on the season.

Monday, July 14th, RHP Zac Gallen vs LHP Yusei Kikuchi

The D-backs' ace came back from injury firing on all cylinders. His fastball velocity was up significantly, and his breaking pitches looked sharp. That wasn't so much the case in his last outing, as he was touched up for five runs (four earned) in 5 1/3 innings against the Braves.

That number might've looked better, if not for a poorly-sequenced curveball in the bottom-middle of the zone that was tagged for a three run blast. Despite this, Gallen's ERA is still a very solid 3.33, and he's pitched overall well since his return from injury. A Blue Jays offense that ranks in the bottom 10 of batting average, runs scored and slugging could help him get back on track.

Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has had an up and down season. He's had some excellent starts, and some unfortunate ones. His ERA is only 4.00, with a 3.58 FIP to suggest he's pitched better than that number, and his last start saw him pitch 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball, punching out an incredible 13 batters.

Kikuchi throws an upper-90s fastball, with a curveball, slider and changeup. His breaking run value is extremely high, but his pitches all feature well-below average movement, and have been hit very hard all season. The D-backs will need to take patient at-bats, and tee off on hittable pitches.

Kikuchi is a free agent at the end of 2024, so don't be surprised if there are a lot of scouts seated behind home plate for this one as the July 30th trade deadline approaches.

Old Friends

In December of 2022, the Blue Jays traded Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno to the D-backs, in exchange for defensive specialist Daulton Varsho.

A season and a half post-trade, Varsho is hitting just .196. He's hit 11 home runs, but struggles to consistently get on base and has just an 89 OPS+. That said, he's been worth 2.8 bWAR, due to his exceptional defense. He's posted an unbelievable 19 DRS across all three outfield slots.

Gabriel Moreno has been a bit banged up in 2024, but is hitting exceptionally well in the month of July. Since coming back from his thumb injury, he's slashing .387/.472/.581, and has a base hit in seven of nine July games, including three multi-hit games.

Defensively, he's been his ever-effective self, with top-10 percentiles in Caught Stealing Above Average and pop time, with runners rarely finding success against him.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. remains one of Arizona's hotter bats. He had last night off, and was 0-for-4 on July 10th, but had recorded a base hit in seven straight games prior. Since his average had dropped to a season-low .225 on May 17th, that number has gone up steadily, as he's now slashing .266/.298/.428, with two doubles and two home runs in July.