Diamondbacks Have Most Difficult Schedule Among NL Contenders

The Diamondbacks must overcome a tough schedule and key injuries to secure a playoff spot

Aug 21, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks designated hitter Joc Pederson (3) is greeted in the dugout by teammates after scoring against the Miami Marlins in the seventh inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports / Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been riding high as one of, if not the hottest team in baseball over the second half of the season. They went into the All-Star break 49-48. Since then they've gone 23-8, running their record up to 72-56.

This stretch has them sitting in the first NL Wild Card spot, a half game in front of the San Diego Padres, and four games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

Arizona has done this despite three key players being on the injured list for much of this time. Christian Walker has not played since July 29th due to an oblique strain. Gabriel Moreno has not played since August 5th due to a left abductor strain.

Ketel Marte managed just 10 at bats in a 10 day span between August 9th-18th before finally going on the injured list with his sprained Ankle.

Yet the team has kept rolling along, albeit with a brief speed bump in Tampa Bay where they were swept by the Rays. They responded by sweeping the Marlins three straight this week.

Now comes the really tough part however. With 34 games remaining they have the most difficult remaining schedule among the top National League contenders. This according to Baseball reference. The Dodgers have the easiest while the Padres remaining schedule is rated neutral.

Projecting Wins

Below is a different kind of schedule analysis. I've looked at the D-backs remaining 34 game schedule by breaking out the home and away win percentages of their opponents Then I weighted that against the D-backs own home and away win percentage. By doing so I came up with 1.32 games above .500

Diamondbacks Remaining Schedule Analysis / Jack Sommers

Obviously a team can't win partial games. But by using this method, and rounding down to 1.0 above .500, the Diamondbacks could be projected to go 18-16 the rest of the way. Doing so would land Arizona at 90-72 for the season, almost certainly good enough for one of the Wild Card spots.

A projection isn't a prediction. We can't actually predict baseball. We can assess however, and when doing so it's very clear that the remaining schedule is very difficult. Adding to the degree of difficulty, the D-backs are going to have to play at least a part of that difficult schedule without their three best players.

Overcoming Injuries

When Walker initially went down Josh Bell was a Godsend. Acquired right at the trade deadline, Bell joined the team in Pittsburgh and immediately made an impact, homering twice in his first game. In his first 12 games with the team he .300 with four homers, nine RBI , and a 1.012 OPS.

Bell slumped to 0-18 over his next five game while hitting into several double plays. He had a key RBI base hit, drew two walks and was hit by pitch in the finale against the Marlins on Wednesday. He's now hitting .229 with a .802 OPS and seven ground ball double plays as a Diamondback.

The team is hoping that Walker may return by the start of Dodgers series August 30th, but he'll miss at least the next six games against the Red Sox and Mets.

Since Moreno went down with injury, rookie catcher Adrian Del Castillo has started nine games and back up Jose Herrera has started six. Del Castillo has hit several dramatic homers and driven in 14 while batting .361 with a 1.092 OPS. The offense is phenomenal.

Herrera has gone 4-17. .235 and had a big RBI triple in Wednesday's game. But he is a light hitting catcher and is not expected to provide much offense when he plays.

Both catchers have done fine in most areas of catching defense, with one glaring exception. Each has caught just one of 15 base stealers, a combined 2-30, 7%. By contrast Moreno had caught 16 of 52, for a 31% rate. The pitchers have done a poor job holding runners on of late, but the dropoff in catcher throwing is significant and teams are taking advantage.

There is no time table for Moreno's return, although Torey Lovullo has said on several ocassions he's confident Moreno will return before the end of the season.

And finally, replacing Ketel Marte is just not possible. Kevin Newman has hit .346 since August 9th, going 9-26. But with just two doubles and one RBI it's been a light batting average compared to the slug that Marte provides. Marte has hit 30 homers and driven in 81 so far this year.

Marte is eligible to come off the injured list by the start of the Dodgers series on August 30th. It's not known at this time if he will be able to come back that quickly however. We probably won't have a clear picture on that until Tuesday of next week when Torey Lovullo addresses the media at the start of the homestand.

With this very tough schedule and missing these key players, the Diamondbacks will need to continue to get above average performance from the replacement players for a while longer to stay in their current position.

Resiliency has been a trademark of this team under Torey Lovullo dating back to the 2023 season and certainly they've overcome numerous prior injuries to get where they are today. It wouldn't be wise to bet against them continuing to play well.

When their opponents look at their own schedules and see the Arizona Diamondbacks on it they know they're in for a tough matchup themselves.