Diamondbacks Riding High as they Head Home to Face the Phillies

A series preview of a rematch between the 2023 NLCS contestants, that might include the return of Merrill Kelly on Sunday.

Merrill Kelly pitches in a 3-inning simulated game at Salt River Fields on July 31, 2024, in Scottsdale. Kelly has been on the injured list with a right shoulder injury since April. / Megan Mendoza/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Diamondbacks (63-52) are back home in Chase Field this weekend, coming off a wildly successful road trip in which they went 5-1. That included a double header and series sweep of the Cleveland Guardians, who went into the series with the best record in baseball.

The best record in baseball now belongs to their opponents for the next four days, the Philadelphia Phillies, who are 68-46. The Phillies came out of the All Star break by going 3-11, including six one-run losses. But they've won 3 of their last four, including their previous two games against the Dodgers in L.A.

Those Dodger losses helped pull the red hot D-backs to within three game of the NL West divisiion leaders. Since June 29 Arizona is 24-9, the best record in MLB over that span. The D-backs and San Diego Padres are tied with the same record and sit atop the NL Wild Card standings.

The two National League Championship contestants from last year faced off once already this season for a three game series in Philadelphia back in late June. The D-backs took the first game 5-4 behind Jordan Montgomery's good outing.

The Phillies won the next two however. Arizona's offense was shut down by Zack Wheeler and then Cristopher Sanchez, as they were outscored 16-2 over those two games.

The two teams are in somewhat different spaces at this point in the season than they were six weeks ago. The D-backs have taken over as the top scoring team in MLB, averaging 5.17 runs per game.

They're led by MVP candidate Ketel Marte, who is batting .298 with a .926 OPS, 29 homers and 80 RBI. He has played Gold Glove caliber defense at second base, registering +11 defensive runs saved.

The Phillies rank sixth with 4.89 R/G. Bryce Harper, (.274, 25 HR, 69 RBI) and Kyle Schwarber (.261, 27 HR, 73 RBI) remain their most dangerous power hitters. Schwarber is coming off a three homer, seven RBI game against the Dodgers Wednesday night.

The pitching matchups could still be difficult for Arizona after game one however.

Thursday August 8, 6:40 P.M. MST

 LHP Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.50)

Allard will be making just his third appearance this year. In his previous outing he came in after an opener and pitched four solid innings, giving up one run to the Mariners. He's spent most of the season with Triple-A Reading, and had a 5.60 ERA in 72 minor league innings.

The former first round draft pick back in 2015 has struggled with performance and injuries since his MLB debut in 2018, and has thrown just 253 MLB innings in his career, posting a 6.05 ERA. He throws a 90 MPH four seamer, a changeup, a cutter, and will sprinkle in a few curves and sinkers.

LHP Jordan Montgomery (7-5, 6.37)

Montgomery's last outing was cut short by a rain delay in Pittsburgh. He gave up one run on a solo homer in three innings. Since returning from the IL due to knee inflammation he has pitched 12 innings, giving up eight runs on 13 hits, including two homes, and has six walks and six strikeouts.

Montgomery's trademark sinker velocity is down to 91.6 MPH, about 1.6 MPH slower than where he was at for the 2022-23 seasons. Montgomery had a 7.95 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across his previous two seasons. Those numbers have deteriorated this year to 5.9 and 3.4 respectively.

Signed to a $25 million contract for the 2024 season on March 29th, his $20 million player option has already vested, and that increases to $22 million when he reaches 18 starts. (He has 16). The option increases further to $25 million if he reaches 23 starts. With his obvious decline, it seems probable he will exercise his option rather than test free agency again after this season.

 Friday August 9th, 6:40 P.M. MST

RHP Zack Wheeler (11-5, 2.77)

Wheeler, who threw seven innings allowing just one run back on June 22nd, has become a D-backs nemesis. In his last five regular season starts against Arizona he's allowed just five earned runs in 25 innings. He appeared in three games in the NLCS last year, giving up three runs in 14.2 innings, (1.82 ERA)

RHP Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.65)

Nelson struggled early in his last start against Pittsburgh before settling down to go five innings, allowing four runs. In his last 42 innings he has a 2.98 ERA however, and has been pitching well and deep in games overall.

Nelson faced the Phillies twice in the 2023, regular season, giving up six runs in 10 innings. He had a rough relief outing in game two of the NLCS, giving up three runs on four hits and a walk while recording just two outs.

Saturday August 10, 5:10 P.M. MST

RHP Aaron Nola (11-5, 3.54)

Signed to a 7 year, $172 million contract extension during the off season, Nola is enjoying another solid season for the Phillies. He did not pitch in the previous series in June. Over the last two regular seasons Nola has not fared that well, giving up 12 runs in 10.2 innings. He beat the D-backs in game two of the NLCS, but lost in game six.

RHP Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.75)

Gallen gave up five runs on eight hits in seven innings to the Guardians on August fifth. In his last eight starts since missing a month due to a hamstring injury he's 4-1 with a 4.60 ERA. The team is 6-2 in those starts. His trademark command has been off, as he's walked 18 in 43 innings over that span.

Gallen did not pitch well against the Phillies in last year's NLCS, losing both his starts and allowing 9 runs in 11 innings that included 14 hits and five homers.

 Sunday August 11, 1:10 P.M. MST

LHP Cristopher Sánchez (8-7, 3.27)

 Sanchez went six innings, allowing one run while picking up the win in Dodger Stadium on August 6th. In 122 innings he's allowed just four homers, for a NL best 0.3 HR/9 ratio. He pitched seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball agianst the D-backs on June 23rd. On June 28th he tossed his first career shutout against the Marlins, giving up three hits, no walks and striking out nine.

Projected Starter: Merrill Kelly 2-0, 2.19 ERA

The D-backs have not officially named a starter, but here at Arizona Diamondbacks On SI we project Kelly to be activated from the disabled list to make this start. Out since late April with a shoulder strain, (Teres Major), Kelly just completed a rehab start for the Class A+ Hillsboro Hops. He went 4+ innings, and threw 62 pitches.