Dispelling the Myth of National League Mediocrity

As many NL Wild Card contenders have played well over the last couple of months, any perceived gap in quality between the two leagues has evaporated.

Nov 1, 2023; Phoenix, AZ, USA; General view of the stadium in the first inning of the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers in game five of the 2023 World Series at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The refrain through much of the 2024 season is that due to parity the National League is mired in mediocrity and lags well behind the American League. It's a false narrative.

It's understandable how that narrative came to be. At the end of play on June 4th the Atlanta Braves held the top Wild Card seed with a 34-24 record. The San Diego Padres held the second NL Wild Card position with a .500 record (32-32). No other NL team (non division leaders), had a .500 record, and the Chicago Cubs held the third playoff spot with a 30-31 record.

Meanwhile the American League looked like it had much higher quality playoff contenders. Beyond the division leaders, the Orioles held the first Wild Card at 39-20, .661 W%. Kansas City held the second spot at 36-26, and the Minnesota Twins held the final seed with a 33-27 record, fully six games over .500.

Fast forward to July 28th and the situation looks completely different. Below I break out the records and standings to show just how even the leagues are at the moment.

Interleague Play

The first piece of evidence that the AL is not vastly better than the NL is the Interleague record. The NL leads the AL 229-221 and have outscored the AL 1982 to 1962. Such a narrow gap does not mean the NL is better, but it certainly is your first indicator things are pretty level.

MLB Division Leaders

MLB Division Leaders through July 27th / Jack Sommers

The Phillies continue to look like the strongest team in MLB at this juncture. The Dodgers have battled a horrific spate of injuries, but remain atop the NL West, and have virtually the same winning percentage as the Orioles. The Astros, despite being very hot over the last month or so of games, have the lowest W% of any division leader.

MLB Wild Cards

MLB Wild Card Holders / Jack Sommers

The Yankees have by far the most wins of any Wild Card contender in any league. They also have just a 13-15 Interleague record and have the second worst record in MLB over the last 30 games at 10-20

The Braves have been struggling due to key injuries to big name players Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuña Jr., and more recently Ozzie Albies and Max Fried. Beyond those two top Wild Card teams there is little to choose between the Padres and Mets and Twins and Royals.

It should also be noted that the Twins and Royals both might have somewhat inflated records due to identical 9-1 records agains the Chicago White Sox. The Southsiders are a historically bad team. Their .252 W% has them on pace to lose 121 games. Since 1901 the highest loss total in MLB history belongs to the 1962 New York Mets who lost 120 games.

MLB Wild Card Hopefuls

Wild Card Hopefuls / Jack Sommers

Here again there is little to choose in terms of win-loss record between the hopefuls just out of a Wild Card position. The defending National League Champion Diamondbacks have overcome a slow start to go 30-18 since June 4th.

They are on the cusp of getting two key starters back in the next couple of weeks in Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez, and have already bolstered their bullpen with the acquisition of A.J. Puk.

The other four teams behind them are clearly suspect but the same is true in the American League. The Red Sox are enjoying a surprisingly good season, but are hardly a team without flaws.

The Mariners have collapsed after opening a 10 game lead in the AL West. Speaking of which, the only reason the Rangers are in contention is due to being in the weakest division this year.

MLB Cellar Dwellers

MLB Cellar Dwellers / Jack Sommers

These are the four worst teams in each league. As mentioned above, the White Sox, who face more AL teams than NL teams are the doormats of the AL. As a result, there are nine teams in the AL over .500 compared to eight teams in the NL.