Frayed D-backs Pitching Staff Testing Limits of Competitiveness

The last three weeks have been a disaster on the mound for Arizona, putting their Postseason chances at risk

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) is talked to on the mound by pitching coach Brent Strom after giving up back-to-back-to-back home runs at Chase Field on Aug. 31, 2024, in Phoenix. / Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Entering play on August 26th the Arizona Diamondbacks held a seven game lead in the Wild Card, and appeared poised to make the Postseason. Riding the strength of the league's best offense, night after night the lineup seemed capable of overcoming one of the weaker pitching staffs in the league, as measured by ERA.

Since August 26th, however, Arizona has gone 7-10 and are clinging by the thinnest of margins to a playoff spot. Their 82-66 record has the team just one game clear of the Braves and Mets in the NL Wild Card race.

Both the rotation and bullpen are in tatters, allowing runs at an alarming rate. To make matters worse, the team's most reliable pitcher since July 2nd, Ryne Nelson, was just placed on the 15-day injured list with shoulder inflammation. The below chart shows the degree to which the team has been unable to stop opponents from scoring over the last three weeks.

Diamondbacks Pitching by Date / Jack Sommers

For the full season, Arizona's 4.63 ERA ranks 27th in MLB. The league and park adjusted ERA+ is now down to 90. No modern team in a full non strike season has ever made the Postseason with an ERA+ that low. The last time it happened over a full season was 1913 by the Philadelphia Athletics who posted an 88 ERA+.

Related Content from September 4th: Can Diamondbacks Hang On to Make Postseason With 92 ERA+?

The rotation going forward, at least until the last weekend of the season, will probably go in the following order: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt.

Gallen, who pitches today, has thrown two consecutive scoreless outings, albeit with some high pitch counts and a lot of walks limiting him to 11 innings pitched in those games

Kelly had to be removed from his most recent start due to hamstring cramps, but the team believes he will be able to make his start on Monday in Colorado. Kelly had appeared to be getitng on the right track, allowing five runs in his last 11 innings (2.90 ERA).

Montgomery has not started a game since August 21. He allowed six runs in 5.2 innings that game, driving his season ERA to 6.44 in 19 starts. He's worked in four games as a long reliever since then, two good, and two bad. In 13 innings out of the pen he's allowed seven earned runs for a 4.85 ERA.

Rodriguez pitched one of his better games in his most recent outing, going five innings and allowing just two runs in a loss. He's yet to go six innings in any of his seven starts however, and has a 4.83 ERA. Rodriguez missed the first four months of the season due to a shoulder strain.

Brandon Pfaadt just suffered the worst start of his major league career on Saturday night, allowing eight runs in 1.2 innings. Over his last five starts he's allowed 25 runs in 22 innings for a 10.23 ERA. That's ballooned his full season ERA to 4.81. He's thrown a team high 166.2 innings, but both Pfaadt and manager Torey Lovullo insist fatigue is not a factor.

As for the bullpen, A.J. Puk has been lights out ever since he got to Arizona in late July, allowing just one run over 20 innings as a Diamondback. Outside of him, however, the high leverage relievers are all showing the wear and tear of the full season.

Justin Martinez's last two outings have been scoreless. Prior to that, however, he had allowed at least one run in seven of his previous 10 games. Since August 28th he has a 5.14 ERA.

Kevin Ginkel has worked in 65 games, throwing 64.1 innings, pitching to an excellent 2.80 ERA. But he's allowed three runs in his last six innings, and Torey Lovullo has been spotting him in for the minimal number of batters possible over the last week.

Ryan Thompson may have righted his ship recently. He's been unscored upon in his last three outings, but prior to that he had a rough stretch of 14 games from August 2nd to September 3rd in which he posted an 8.76 ERA. For the full year his ERA stands at 3.15.

Dylan Floro, who came over from the Nationals at the trade deadline has been a disaster as a Diamondback in middle relief. In 15 games for Arizona he has a 9.37 ERA. Floro has allowed five runs in two of his last three outings, and his velocity has dropped from 92.5 last year to 88 in his most recent game Saturday night.

Former closer Paul Sewald has completely lost the trust of his manager, despite all the positive words Lovullo has tried to use to prop up Sewald's confidence. The fact is Sewald has only pitched in three games this month, and none since September 8th.

This is the state of the team's pitching staff as they try to hold on and make the Postseason. Perhaps Zac Gallen can step up as the stopper on Sunday and deliver a deep, quality start and to get the team headed in the right direction. If he can put the team on his shoulders get them a much needed win, it might be enough to stop the bleeding.